Gold futures surged and London mining stocks rallied Monday after the U.S. and Iran outlined an interim peace deal expected to ease inflation concerns, lower oil prices, and boost global sentiment, according to The Wall Street Journal’s Market Talks.
Gold futures in New York rose 2.3% to $4,337.80 a troy ounce, while spot gold traded 1.8% higher at $4,293.38 a troy ounce in early Asian trade, Adam Whittaker and Jason Chau reported for WSJ. Oil prices fell on expectations that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are set to resume under the deal.
The agreement soothed fears that have weighed on markets since the Middle East conflict escalated in late February. Since that time, gold has fallen more than 20% as concerns over high energy prices and supply-chain disruptions stoked expectations of higher interest rates, according to ANZ Research analysts cited by WSJ. The analysts said the war reinforces structural reasons for investors to increase exposure to gold, including geopolitical fragmentation and waning confidence in bonds as a reliable portfolio diversifier.
London’s miners led the gains. Hochschild Mining rose nearly 8%, with precious-metal peers Fresnillo rising 6.1% and Endeavour Mining up 5.8%, according to WSJ. Platinum-group-metals miner Valterra Platinum rose nearly 10%, while copper miner Antofagasta traded up 6.6%.
Higher interest rates from central banks typically hurt non-yielding assets like gold, analysts noted.
Fitch Ratings said in a note Monday that Indonesian commodity exporters face higher credit risks under the government’s planned single-door export rules, which will channel thermal coal, palm oil, and ferroalloy exports through state-owned entity Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia, according to reporter Yingxian Wong. The policy, due for full rollout by Jan. 1, 2027, could reduce pricing flexibility and control over export proceeds, although companies with strong balance sheets or diversified operations may be better positioned, Fitch said. Implementation details remain unclear, and the impact on miners and plantation companies will depend on policy design, the ratings agency said. Uncertainty could pressure cash flows, raise transaction costs, and increase foreign-exchange risks, it added.
In Asia, RHB Research analysts upgraded their rating for the plantation sector to overweight from neutral, citing the potential for the El Nino phenomenon to boost commodity prices, according to WSJ reporter Ronnie Harui. An official El Nino advisory was issued by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. RHB analysts said they see upside risks to their crude-palm-oil assumption of 4,400 ringgit per ton for 2026 and 4,300 ringgit per ton for 2027. The analysts named Johor Plantations Group, Sarawak Oil Palms, IOI Corp., Hap Seng Plantations, London Sumatra Indonesia, and SD Guthrie as top picks.