The outlook for oil and markets on Monday turned on how investors interpreted the Iran conflict’s duration and its effects on energy supply. Brent crude rose after President Donald Trump rejected what he described as Iran’s latest proposal for ending the war, framing the U.S.-Iran ceasefire as fragile. At the same time, U.S. stock investors kept buying into a run of records, buoyed by expectations that corporate earnings remain strong even as some households feel pressure from expensive gasoline and tariffs.
Trump’s remarks came as the U.S. president prepared to travel to China this week, where he is expected to press President Xi Jinping to influence Iran. The market context for that trip is that China buys the most sanctioned Iranian crude oil, giving it potential leverage over how quickly any conflict-related supply disruptions could ease.
The oil market’s rise also reflected longer-running disruption tied to the Iran war. The conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz and has kept oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf rather than delivering crude worldwide, a pattern that has contributed to oil prices climbing from roughly $70 a barrel to a settlement of $104.21 for Brent.
On Wall Street, the major indexes managed to extend their record streak even as the internal mix was uneven. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% from its prior all-time high set Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 95 points, or 0.2%, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.1% to reach its own all-time high.
The breadth within the S&P 500 showed caution among some investors. The index was higher even though the majority of stocks inside it fell, including Mosaic, which reported results for the latest quarter that were weaker than analysts expected. Mosaic’s stock dropped 1.8%, with the company described as benefiting from higher fertilizer product prices while facing much higher costs for sulfur and other raw materials amid logistics snarls created by the war with Iran.
Other companies also reflected the cross-currents between earnings resilience and price pressures. Dollar General slid 7.6% among stocks whose customers have less room to absorb higher gasoline prices. Royal Caribbean fell 4.3%, and Southwest Airlines dropped 3.2%, while Fox climbed 7.6% after reporting profit and revenue that beat analyst expectations.
Looking beyond individual results, FactSet data cited in the report said more than four out of five S&P 500 companies that had reported so far this quarter topped profit expectations, and the group was on track for nearly 28% overall growth—positioned as the best growth since the end of 2021 if it holds. Elsewhere, the report said companies globally were on track for their strongest growth in more than four years, with Deutsche Bank strategists led by Binky Chadha linking the trend to gains from artificial-intelligence-related technology.
Deal activity and tech also supported parts of the market. Beazer Homes USA jumped 34% after Dream Finders Homes offered to buy it in a deal valued at roughly $704 million, a move that would create the country’s seventh-largest homebuilder; Dream Finders asked Beazer shareholders to push the company’s management and board to approve the deal after multiple earlier attempts. Tech leaders remained a key force as well, with the report citing gains of 2% for Nvidia and 6.5% for Micron Technology.
In markets abroad, European and Asian indexes diverged, with France’s CAC 40 down 0.7% and South Korea’s Kospi up 4.3% on gains for Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and other AI-related tech stocks. In the bond market, Treasury yields rose as the 10-year yield moved to 4.40% from 4.38% late Friday, a shift investors often watch because higher yields can feed into mortgage and other loan rates and weigh on stock and investment prices.