Global stocks mostly rose Monday while oil prices fell sharply after President Donald Trump said talks to end the war with Iran were progressing, a development traders appeared to treat as reducing immediate energy-market risk. U.S. markets were closed for the Memorial Day holiday, leaving investors elsewhere to gauge the implications of Trump’s remarks and related comments from regional officials.
In Europe, the CAC 40 rose 1.1% to 8,203.32, the DAX gained 1.0% to 25,148.39, and the FTSE 100 edged up 0.2% to 10,466.26. Trading closures in the U.S., along with holidays in parts of Asia including South Korea and Hong Kong marking Buddha’s birthday, limited the breadth of cross-market moves for the day.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.9% to finish at 65,158.19, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4% to 8,692.00. The Shanghai Composite rose nearly 1% to 4,152.57, as investors weighed the prospect that negotiations could lead to changes affecting regional trade routes and supply expectations.
Trump said negotiations with Iran were “proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner.” Meanwhile, regional officials told The Associated Press on Sunday that the United States is close to reaching a deal that would end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, with details and timelines to be worked out later.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would affect energy prices because the war has prevented oil tankers from exiting the Persian Gulf and delivering crude to customers worldwide, according to the AP report. Japan, which imports almost all its oil, relies heavily on shipments through the strait, making any change in access a potential driver of oil expectations.
Analyst Stephen Innes said in a commentary that markets were “rapidly transitioning from pricing geopolitical fear toward pricing a potential peace dividend as Hormuz reopening expectations pressure oil and the dollar lower.” The remarks linked the day’s oil decline and currency moves to the growing weight placed on possible de-escalation and shipping normalization.
In the United States, stocks had moved higher before the holiday: on Friday, the S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Dow industrials climbed 0.6%, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.2%. The AP report said recent earnings from U.S. companies that topped analysts’ expectations were helping sentiment, even as inflation concerns have risen as the war has dragged on.
Oil prices dropped Monday, with benchmark U.S. crude falling $4.77, or more than 4%, to $91.83 a barrel, while Brent crude declined $4.86 to $98.68 a barrel. In currency trading, the U.S. dollar declined to 158.95 Japanese yen from 159.16 yen, while the euro cost $1.1644, up from $1.1605.