Iran war leaves US farmers worried about essential fertilizer costs

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Tennessee farmer Todd Littleton says the Iran war has changed the economics of spring planting in ways that are difficult for farms already under pressure. Littleton, a third-generation producer from Gibson County in northwest Tennessee, expects to pay about $100,000 more for fertilizer this season, a roughly 40% spike from his bill last year, and he is scrambling to cover the higher cost.

Littleton grows corn, soybeans and wheat, and he said the squeeze lands when cash flows have been tested by earlier losses. “The problem is, is we’re so strained financially coming into this issue,” he said, adding that “we have had a couple of record losses the last couple years” and that rising input prices “just really couldn’t happen at a worse time.”

Fertilizer matters because of what it supports on farms and what it ultimately feeds off the farm. The Associated Press reported that nitrogen-based fertilizer is especially vital for corn, which the story described as the largest U.S. crop and a crop whose nitrogen nutrition also supports livestock and helps fuel energy systems that depend on farm output converted into transportation fuel.

Farmers have complained about costly fertilizer for years, but the Associated Press story tied the newest jump to the war in Iran and related disruption to global shipping lanes. The report said the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28 and that there has been a slowdown in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, which in turn affects fuel prices central to fertilizer production.

The shipping disruption also affects where certain fertilizers and inputs can be sourced. The story said it has largely stopped the export of nitrogen fertilizers manufactured in the Persian Gulf and limited access to key fertilizer ingredients, including urea and ammonia. The Associated Press story also cited the American Farm Bureau Federation’s estimates that about 15% of fertilizer imports to the U.S. come from the Middle East and that about half of the global urea supply and 30% of ammonia come from the region.

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said the problem could extend beyond higher prices into availability for some producers. “We’re being told that many of our farmers that haven’t preordered their fertilizer and paid for it may not even obtain the fertilizer that they’re going to need during the season or for spring planting,” Duvall said, adding, “That’s why this situation is so serious.”

Harry Ott, who leads the South Carolina Farm Bureau, said there is not enough fertilizer stockpiled in warehouses to meet demand during the coming months. “It is a really dire situation that our farmers facing,” Ott said, speaking about the challenge farmers face when supply is tight early in the planting season.

The Associated Press story also said the consequences are unlikely to clear quickly, even if the war were to ease. Jacqui Fatka, a farm supply economist for CoBank, said there is “going to be a tail to this that’s going to take time to get everything turned back on, sent back out,” describing how difficult it can be to restore shipping routes and ingredient flows.

Nancy Martinez, director of public policy, trade and biotechnology for the National Corn Growers Association, said the industry does not yet know how supplies will shake out. The story also cited University of Iowa economics professor Anne Villamil, who said nitrogen- and phosphate-based fertilizers are largely produced domestically, which helps, but that higher energy prices still raise production costs and therefore increase what farmers pay.

The story also described possible knock-on effects beyond farm margins. Iowa State University economics professor Chad Hart said higher oil prices could result in higher food prices because of higher diesel needed to transport products and petroleum products used in plastic packaging. However, the Associated Press reporting also said increased fertilizer prices should not significantly lead to grocery price increases because on-farm costs are a small part of what consumers pay at the supermarket.

In Washington, the Associated Press reported that the Trump administration said it has taken steps to ease fertilizer costs, including moving to increase fertilizer imports from Venezuela. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins called the step “a huge step that puts farm security and farmers first,” while the USDA said it previously announced $12 billion in one-time payments to help farmers offset losses primarily tied to tariffs, and it said it provided more than $30 billion in additional aid to farmers since January 2025.

CoBank’s Fatka said the $12 billion figure does not go far for farmers when payments are compared with farmers’ production-cost estimates. The Associated Press reporting also put the broader farm stress in context by saying that farm bankruptcies remain rare, with 315 last year out of nearly 1.9 million farms nationally, even as crop prices for corn and soybeans have been climbing while fertilizer costs have risen.

Tom Waters, who farms about 5,000 acres east of Kansas City, said the increase in fertilizer prices and other costs make it difficult to make a profit when crop prices are low. “The margins get smaller and smaller so we just have to really work hard to trim our costs and be as frugal as we can be but still provide the soil and crop what it needs to grow and produce,” Waters said.