Farmers around the world are grappling with a fertilizer squeeze as fighting in Iran threatens shipping at the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for both energy and agricultural trade. With fertilizer supplies “waning” and gas prices rising as the war disrupts the waterway, planting-window shortages are raising concerns that higher input costs could flow into food prices next year.
The strain falls hardest on farmers who depend on imports for key nutrients just before or at planting. Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Program, said the poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere rely on Gulf fertilizer imports, and the shortage is arriving as planting season begins. In the worst case, Skau said it could mean “lower yields and crop failures next season,” while in the best case higher input costs could still be “included in food prices next year.”
Iran is limiting fertilizer-related shipments through the strait, even as markets have focused primarily on oil and natural gas disruptions. Iranian ambassador Ali Bahreini told the United Nations in Geneva that Tehran has accepted a request from the U.N. to allow humanitarian aid and agricultural shipments to move through the waterway. The planned aid channel would be the first breakthrough at the shipping chokepoint after about a month of war, according to the reporting, though nitrogen and phosphate supplies are described as under immediate threat.
Two major fertilizer nutrients—nitrogen and phosphate—are at the center of the problem. Chris Lawson of CRU Group said nitrogen supplies, including urea, have been hardest hit because of shipping delays and higher liquefied natural gas prices, which are described as an essential ingredient. Lawson also said the conflict has restricted about 30% of global urea trade.
The fertilizer shortage is adding pressure at a moment when many producing regions and importing countries are already stretched. Raj Patel, a food systems economist at the University of Texas, said the timing is particularly damaging: “The planting season is now,” he said. “The fertilizer isn’t there.” Farmers described waiting for deliveries, including Baldev Singh, a 55-year-old rice farmer in Punjab, India, who said smallholders may not survive without government support for fertilizer when demand peaks in June: “Right now, we are waiting and hoping.”
Phosphate supplies are also under pressure, with implications for crop root development. The reporting said Saudi Arabia exports about a fifth of the world’s phosphate fertilizer, while the region exports more than 40% of the world’s sulfur, a key ingredient and byproduct of oil and gas refining, as Lawson said. Even once fighting ends, shipping analysts said reopening the strait would likely require security guarantees and that insurance costs would rise. Owen Gooch, an analyst with Argus Consulting Services, said producers in the Gulf would need clear security guarantees before resuming shipments through the strait.
In major importing and producing countries, fertilizer availability can hinge on whether energy and industrial inputs can keep plants running. The article said India has prioritized urea supplies for domestic use and provides fertilizer manufacturers with about 70% of their natural gas needs, but some plants are still operating below capacity, leading to lower output. Hanna Opsahl-Ben Ammar of Yara International, one of the world’s largest fertilizer companies, said “The food system is fragile, and it depends on stable fertilizer supply chains to ensure farmers can produce the food the world relies on.”
The impact may show up quickly because fertilizer is usually applied just before or at planting. That means crops can miss early growth stages when deliveries are delayed, even if supplies improve later. The reporting said the effects are already being felt in the United States and Europe, where planting seasons are under way, and the first planting season in much of Asia could be hit in the coming months. Dirk Peters, an agricultural engineer who runs a farm outside Berlin, said, “Our crops out in the field need nitrogen now — the sooner the better — so they can get off to a good start, helping them establish themselves and build up reserves for the harvest later this summer.”
Analysts also said the fertilizer disruption comes when grain prices may not provide the same cushion that farmers had after earlier shocks. Joseph Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute said fertilizer prices are below peaks seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but grain prices were higher then, helping farmers absorb costs. With grain prices lower now, Glauber said margins are tighter, and farmers may switch to less fertilizer-intensive crops or apply less fertilizer, which can reduce yields and push food prices higher.
Developing countries face particular risk as they rely on imported fertilizer and have less room to absorb sudden price jumps. The reporting described disruptions across Africa, where many farmers import fertilizer from the Middle East and Russia. Stephen Muchiri, a Kenya maize farmer and CEO of the Eastern African Farmers Federation that represents 25 million smallholders, said heavy rains in East Africa left farmers with about a week of dry weather to prepare fields and apply fertilizer. Even short delays can reduce yields, Patel said, citing research from Zambia: even a brief interruption can cut maize yields by about 4% in a season.
Governments may respond with subsidies, domestic production efforts, and export controls, but those interventions can trade off short-term relief against long-term farming investment. The article said India already subsidizes fertilizer to ease the financial strain on farmers, but it said those subsidies leave less money for long-term farming investments. It also cited budget figures for urea subsidies from a U.S.-based analysis group, along with concerns that increased domestic urea production can raise dependence on imported gas. Purva Jain of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis supported organic fertilizer use, saying excessive urea use has harmed local soil. Oliver Oliveros, executive coordinator of the Agroecology Coalition, said reducing reliance on imported fertilizers could help protect farmers and consumers from energy price swings and climate shocks, calling it “This could be a turning point.”