The Iran war has effectively halted oil tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz, but the impact is now reaching far beyond crude shipments—squeezing global logistics networks that move medicines, semiconductors, fertilizers and other oil-derived products, industry analysts said.
Syracuse University supply-chain professor Patrick Penfield said the disruption is starting to show up across the global system. “This is really causing some major impacts within the global supply chain,” he said. “As this conflict keeps progressing, you’ll start to see some shortages, you’ll see some major price increases.”
As cargo ships lose access to the shortest routes, vessels are stuck in the Gulf or forced into longer detours around the southern tip of Africa. Containers and other freight operators warned that even a relatively small portion of ports being sidelined can trigger congestion elsewhere because the shipping network functions like a connected chain of stops and schedules.
Shipping data firm Clarksons Research estimates about 3,200 ships—about 4% of global ship tonnage—are idle inside the Persian Gulf. That total includes about 1,231 ships that likely operate only within the Gulf. Clarksons also estimated that about 500 ships—about 1% of global tonnage—are “waiting” outside the Gulf in ports off the coast of the United Arab Emirates and Oman.
Michael Goldman, general manager North America of CARU Containers, said the congestion has a domino effect. He likened the supply chain to a long train where each car represents a port, arguing that a derailment at one point can spread to ports upstream and downstream.
Goldman and Penfield described a reinforcing set of pressures: longer routes consume more time and fuel, and insurers and shippers adjust costs for added risk. In addition to constraints tied to Hormuz, the instability has also dampened transit in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, after years of disruption from Houthi attacks that had recently improved. Maersk said it resumed transit in the Suez Canal and Red Sea but rerouted traffic around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the volatile region, a change that can add 10 to 14 days and about $1 million extra in fuel per ship, Penfield estimated.
That longer travel and higher fuel use, along with elevated uncertainty in the region, has led shippers to add fuel charges and “war risk” or “emergency conflict” surcharges, Penfield said, raising costs across the supply chain rather than only for goods that move through the Strait.
The cost pressure is not limited to the ocean freight sector. The report said closed airspace and airports in countries including the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran have stranded tens of thousands of people—and cargo. Middle Eastern airlines including Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways operate cargo aircraft and also carry freight in the belly of passenger planes, making air freight capacity a critical pressure point for time-sensitive goods.
The disruption matters because air freight, while typically less than 1% of global freight by volume, tends to carry perishable or high-value shipments. The report cited Boeing’s estimate that pharmaceuticals, electronics and produce account for about 35% of world trade value among air-shipped products.
Henry Harteveldt, an airline industry analyst with Atmosphere Research Group, said flights through Middle Eastern hub airports that route passengers and cargo from India are especially vulnerable. He said it is going to be hard to get to India now, and passengers may have to switch to different routings that fly west across Asia. He also said airlines may need longer flights and, in some cases, add fuel stops.
Harteveldt said the risk to pharmaceutical supply chains is significant, adding: “Remember, there’s a lot of pharmaceutical products that are made in India and then exported to different countries around the world. If that’s disrupted, that has a huge, huge, huge impact.”
The report said air cargo costs are expected to rise as airlines face reduced capacity, increased demand, and additional surcharges. It also cited Maersk, which said in an operational update that it expects air freight rates to rise due to capacity constraints and that airlines are introducing or reviewing “war risk surcharges” on shipments routed through or near impacted regions, along with possible added costs linked to jet fuel.
Amid the disruption, some industry leaders said the transportation system can adapt, even if the situation is severe. Goldman said disruptions have repeatedly hit global logistics in recent years, including during COVID-related shortages and other Middle East conflicts, and that the industry adjusts. “The specific situation that’s happening is pretty unprecedented, so it’s very unique from that perspective,” he said. “(But) for the last few years the industry just kind of runs on disruption. So in terms of our industry having disruption, that is nothing new. That’s more of the same.”
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump pitched a plan on Tuesday aimed at getting oil and trade moving again through the Strait. Trump said on social media that he ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. to provide political risk insurance for tankers carrying oil and other goods through the Persian Gulf “at a very reasonable price,” after marine insurers had been canceling or raising rates for coverage in the region. He said that, if necessary, the U.S. Navy would escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, citing at least eight destroyers and three smaller littoral combat ships already in the region with prior experience escorting merchant shipping.
The report said that even with efforts to reopen critical waterways, the wider disruption risk grows as the conflict drags on—because shipments are interconnected, routes are limited, and delays compound across ocean and air networks carrying sensitive goods.