The World Meteorological Organization and the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office released new projections Thursday showing a 75% probability that the global average temperature from 2026 to 2030 will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. The projection would breach the threshold set by the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which aimed to limit warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and pursue efforts to keep it under 1.5 degrees, averaged over 20 years.
The WMO’s outlook also forecasts that the Arctic will warm by nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.66 degrees Celsius) between now and 2030, roughly triple the global average pace. The report warns of a severe drought with potential wildfires in the Amazon basin, a critical region that absorbs vast amounts of carbon dioxide from human activities. “A hotter globe from the burning of coal, oil and gas means more extreme weather including floods, droughts and heat waves,” the WMO said, echoing a broad consensus among climate scientists.
A U.N. science report published after the Paris pact detailed how surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius multiplies the risk of death, danger, and species loss. Even a few tenths of a degree can push ecosystems like coral reefs and glaciers past tipping points, the report found, with disproportionately severe impacts for vulnerable regions. The WMO’s annual update on global climate trends serves as a benchmark for policymakers and scientists tracking progress under the Paris Agreement as countries prepare for the next round of U.N. climate negotiations.