The latest outlook for El Niño is arriving as seasonal models converge on an unusually strong Pacific signal that could tip weather patterns around the world, scientists and meteorologists said in interviews and statements reviewed by The Associated Press. The concern is not only that the event is likely to develop, but that it could strengthen after it begins, changing the odds for heat, drought and heavy rainfall through much of 2026.
WFLA-TV Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist Jeff Berardelli said Friday that he expects impacts that would stand out against recent history. “I think we’re going to see weather events that we’ve never seen in modern history before,” Berardelli said in Tampa, Florida. The warning is grounded in the physics of El Niño and the current state of ocean heat, which forecasters say is already shifting.
An El Niño event is a cyclical warming of patches of the equatorial Pacific, and it tends to alter global temperature and rainfall patterns. Its counterpart, La Niña, is marked by waters that are cooler than average, and the two patterns generally recur every two to seven years, typically lasting around nine to 12 months, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
The WMO’s seasonal update described how El Niño is getting its start and how it may grow stronger. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the WMO’s chief of climate prediction, said in the global update that there is high confidence in El Niño’s onset, followed by further intensification in the months afterward. Berardelli described the early stages as subsurface heat in the Pacific moving east and ascending toward the surface, setting the conditions for the atmosphere to respond.
Scientists said the current ocean conditions look unusually supportive of a large event. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources, said the predictive models are onto something because the volume and intensity of the subsurface warm-water anomalies are about as large as those seen in the historical record. He added that the very strongest events have been called “super El Ninos,” and he said one of the key building blocks to make such an event fully materialize is already occurring—though it would not be guaranteed.
Berardelli said that if the Pacific releases a lot of heat, it can supercharge the climate system and drive a mix of extremes. He said more heat would likely mean stronger heat waves and worsening drought in some regions, while at the same time bringing more moisture that can translate into more intense floods. He also said El Niño tends to subdue the Atlantic hurricane season because heat in the Pacific can outcompete influences over the Atlantic, and he predicted the Caribbean could be extra dry this summer with fewer tropical systems.
The projected impacts are broad, stretching beyond the United States. Berardelli said it appears hotter than normal conditions and significant heat waves could affect parts of the U.S. during the summer, while the Southwest could see more frequent daily thunderstorms. He also pointed to the potential for stress on ecosystems, saying forest degradation in the Amazon—driven by wildfires, logging and drought—affects about 40% of the region and could be exacerbated in 2026 if El Niño proves strong.
Swain said the combination of excess ocean heat and a warming planet could produce record-breaking global warmth later this year, next year or both. In that context, he argued that “All indicators are, at this point, that the next year is going to be a pretty wild year from a global climate perspective.”
Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, said El Niño’s effect on global temperatures is more temporary, generally adding heat for a year or two and then oscillating back toward La Niña, which can lower global temperatures for another period. Mann said the longer-term, steady warming trend would continue as long as people keep burning fossil fuels, while El Niño and La Niña mainly shift where the heat shows up from year to year.
The outlook also carries a note of caution. The WMO warned that seasonal models have a harder time making accurate forecasts in the spring, even as it showed high confidence in El Niño’s onset and expected intensification after that point. Taken together, forecasters said the event’s trajectory could be exceptional, but the specific details of how extremes play out region by region remain difficult to pin down this far ahead.