President Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to Washington, D.C., last August as part of the administration’s Safe and Beautiful Task Force has produced a mixed record on crime reduction, according to a new study by the nonpartisan Niskanen Center. The analysis found that the visible military presence led to a 24% drop in “opportunistic” crimes such as property thefts and vehicle break-ins, but it had no effect on violent crimes, including robberies, which were already declining before Trump took office.
The Guard deployment currently involves about 2,800 troops from D.C. and roughly a dozen states, all with Republican governors. Unlike other Trump National Guard deployments that faced legal challenges, the president has direct authority over the Guard in the District. The troops, many armed, conduct “high visibility patrols” around federal property, residential areas, parks, and Metro stations. They do not have arrest powers but may detain individuals.
Richard Hahn, one of the study’s authors, said the deployment’s results should be weighed against its cost. “I think on balance the National Guard’s deployment is not a failure, there is success in what they’ve done. But I guess the point that we try to make is: compared to what?” Hahn said. “You could get the same or better outcomes, possibly much better outcomes, for much cheaper, if you just were very thoughtful about policing.”
A separate assessment by the Congressional Budget Office found the deployment costs the federal government $1.5 million per day. Researchers in the Niskanen study described the Guard’s presence as a “blunt and expensive instrument.”
The White House rejected the study’s conclusions. Spokesperson Abigail Jackson said in a statement that the analysis “should not be taken seriously.” She added that “the President’s Safe and Beautiful Task Force and National Guard presence have driven down crime, beautified the city, and improved quality of life for countless individuals,” without providing supporting evidence.
Despite the study’s findings, federal officials plan to increase the number of troops in the capital. In recent weeks, the administration announced a “summer surge” that will double the Guard presence to 5,000 troops ahead of events marking America’s 250th birthday. Assistant Attorney General Colin M. McDonald said when announcing the surge: “Our message today is that we’re not done. We are not satisfied. We are not content with good. We are coming for perfection, and we won’t be done until we reclaim every last inch of ground on anyone seeking to do harm in our nation’s capital.”
It is unclear when the surge would end or whether troop levels would return to current numbers in the fall. NPR reached out to task force officials for details but did not receive an immediate response.
The deployment began in August 2025 as part of the administration’s broader effort to reduce crime and beautify the capital, an approach Trump has said he wants to expand to other cities. The Safe and Beautiful Task Force includes hundreds of federal law enforcement officers working alongside local police. Similar operations have already been conducted in Memphis and New Orleans.