The conflicts that have battered the Middle East over the past three years — in Gaza, Lebanon and the U.S.-Iran war — are each, on paper, in ceasefire. In practice, fighting persists on every front, according to a detailed assessment published June 3 by the Wall Street Journal. The fighting is less intense than before the truces were reached in March and April, the Journal reported, but persistent enough to leave all three arenas in an uneasy limbo between war and peace.
In the Gaza Strip, where a ceasefire has been in place for eight months, Israel continues to target militants involved in the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks and has expanded its control over parts of the enclave, pushing deeper into territory once held by Hamas. Last week, Israeli forces killed Hamas military chief Mohammed Odeh, less than two weeks after killing his predecessor. The Journal reported that hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes since the ceasefire took effect, according to Palestinian health authorities. Gaza’s humanitarian crisis remains severe, with much of the population dependent on aid and lacking adequate shelter and sanitation.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which went into effect in mid-April a little over a week after the U.S.-Israeli truce with Iran, has been marked by escalating violence. Hezbollah has stepped up attacks on Israeli military positions and northern Israeli communities using explosive drones, while Israel has responded with expanded military operations and airstrikes. Israeli forces are creating a so-called buffer zone along the border, the Journal reported, increasing pressure on Lebanon’s fragile government and complicating broader regional diplomacy. More than 3,000 people have been killed in Lebanon since March, according to Lebanese health authorities, and more than one million have been displaced.
MSI previously reported on the fragility of these ceasefires as they were being negotiated in April. The two-month-old U.S.-Iran ceasefire has been punctuated by repeated military incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz, as described in that earlier coverage. The two sides have exchanged drone and missile fire, though each has characterized the actions as limited and defensive rather than a collapse of the truce.
The skirmishes continued Tuesday evening, the Journal reported. Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, and the U.S. attacked a military control station and fired on an empty oil tanker that it said was attempting to breach its blockade. Despite the clashes, Washington and Tehran appear eager to avoid a return to full-scale war, the Journal reported. They are pursuing negotiations aimed at securing maritime access through the strait and creating space for broader talks on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program.
Both sides are exerting pressure through a form of sea blockade, the Journal reported. Iran is controlling the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping global oil prices elevated, while the U.S. is blocking Iranian ships from leaving and entering ports.