UK motorists have seen pump prices climb steadily since the war erupted on 28 February 2026, as disruption to Middle Eastern production and transport has translated into wholesale market volatility. The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped from $73 to $126, bringing the cost of filling a typical family petrol tank up by approximately £14 and a tank of diesel by around £27.
Petrol reached 158.5p a litre on 19 May, marking the highest point of the conflict, while diesel stood at 185.9p a litre. Prices at the forecourt still track well below the summer 2022 spikes that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when unleaded hit 191.5p and diesel reached 199p. Analysts note that every $10 increase in the wholesale oil price adds roughly 7p to the cost of a litre at retail. Because fuel transport and refining involve slow logistical processes, wholesale price movements typically take about two weeks to appear at petrol stations.
The RAC motoring group said it expects unleaded petrol to climb to at least 160p a litre in the coming weeks unless there is a dramatic and sustained drop in crude prices. The outlook for diesel remains slightly more favourable, though the association warned that further increases are likely without a diplomatic resolution. Fuel retailers have faced scrutiny over potential price gouging during the conflict, but the official market regulator said it had not seen evidence of retailers actively changing their pricing strategies to exploit the crisis.
The volatility stems directly from the status of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime choke point through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows. The strait has been effectively closed since the fighting began, with independent monitoring tracking only a handful of vessel crossings in recent months against a typical baseline of 138 transits per day. Although a ceasefire between the US/Israel coalition and Iran has largely held since 8 April, negotiations for a long-term peace agreement have stalled, with control of the strait remaining a major sticking point. Even if the maritime restrictions are lifted, JP Morgan analysts project that global oil prices will likely remain above $100 a barrel for the remainder of the year due to damaged Gulf refining capacity.
The UK is heavily reliant on oil and gas imports, primarily from the United States and Norway. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said on 16 April that Britain is not facing an immediate shortage of petrol, diesel, or jet fuel. The country currently holds more than the 90 days of net oil imports required under its International Energy Agency obligations. Oil accounts for 35% of the UK’s total energy supply, according to the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.
In response to the economic strain, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced on 20 May that a planned 5p per litre increase in fuel duty, originally scheduled for September, will be delayed until 31 December. The duty cut, initially introduced in 2022, had been frozen ever since. The government also introduced an overnight cut to the duty rate on red diesel used by farmers and rail freight, and granted a 12-month vehicle excise duty holiday for heavy goods vehicle hauliers.
Beyond the forecourt, the energy market disruption is beginning to pressure household utility costs. Millions of domestic gas and electricity bills have been shielded from wholesale impacts under the existing price cap, which fell in April and remains frozen until June. However, analysts at Cornwall Insights project that the next price cap, taking effect in July, will increase by £209 to £1,850 per year for a typical dual-fuel household. The independent regulator Ofgem is scheduled to confirm the July cap level on 27 May.
Households in Northern Ireland and rural areas that rely on heating oil for warmth have already faced direct price spikes, prompting the government to announce a £53 million support package. Meanwhile, the aviation sector continues to absorb heavy costs. European jet fuel prices more than doubled immediately after the war began and currently sit roughly 50% above pre-conflict levels. The International Energy Agency noted in mid-April that Europe had roughly six weeks of jet fuel left at that time, forcing several airlines to cancel routes and raise ticket prices. The IEA has encouraged member states to reduce consumption through measures such as teleworking and car sharing.
The government maintains its Fuel Finder digital tool to help drivers compare local petrol station costs in real time. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero reiterated that while wholesale prices remain elevated, strategic reserves and diversified import routes are preventing physical supply shortages, though the financial burden on consumers and freight operators continues to mount.