With 99% of voting stations reporting, Abelardo de la Espriella secured 10.3 million ballots to advance to a June 21 runoff against Ivan Cepeda. The first-round results overturned pre-election polling that had projected a comfortable victory for Cepeda. The outcome marks a significant shift in a nation that has historically balanced between traditional conservative leadership and left-leaning coalitions.

De la Espriella, who frequently refers to himself as “The Tiger,” celebrated the early returns by addressing supporters on Instagram. “More than 10 million Colombians placed their trust in the tiger, joining the herd,” de la Espriella said. “We will change the history of Colombia forever.”

Cepeda declined to concede, raising concerns about voting irregularities during a public address. Incumbent President Gustavo Petro amplified the skepticism in a post on X, stating the preliminary count “has no binding legal force.” Petro added: “I do not accept the results of the preliminary count.” Neither the Cepeda campaign nor the president’s office outlined specific legal or political steps they planned to take next.

The June runoff will determine the direction of a country of 53 million residents currently grappling with escalating armed violence and a rapidly expanding cocaine trade. Militias fielding thousands of fighters now operate with heavy weaponry and drones, reversing security gains that Colombian forces achieved against leftist rebels and armed groups during the 2010s. The United States has expressed dismay over the reversal, having spent more than $14 billion in the country fighting cocaine trafficking.

De la Espriella campaigned on an aggressive security platform, promising to construct supermax prisons in the Amazon and reinforce the military to dismantle trafficking organizations. The 47-year-old defense attorney has presented himself as a business-friendly alternative who will cut taxes and reduce regulatory barriers for private investment. He has also suggested he would collaborate with the Trump administration to stabilize the region.

The attorney’s background has drawn scrutiny from political critics. De la Espriella accumulated significant wealth by representing underworld figures, including right-wing paramilitary commanders accused of trafficking cocaine to American cities and Alex Saab, who faced U.S. money laundering charges before his recent extradition to the United States. De la Espriella denied representing drug traffickers during a recent podcast appearance with influencer Luis Fernando Villa. “I’ve never defended narco-traffickers,” de la Espriella said. “That’s an urban legend.”

The election’s first round delivered a sharp rebuke to both the ruling administration and the traditional conservative establishment. The Inspector General’s Office noted that the government actively campaigned for Cepeda despite laws prohibiting such activities. Meanwhile, status quo candidate Sen. Paloma Valencia finished a distant third, even with explicit backing from former President Álvaro Uribe. De la Espriella’s surge mirrors the anti-establishment sentiment that propelled Javier Milei in Argentina and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador.

Cepedia’s campaign relies heavily on expanding the social programs enacted during Petro’s tenure. His supporters point to increased social spending and a 23% minimum wage hike as tangible improvements for working-class households. “I made more money,” said Janet Jimenez, a 53-year-old restaurant worker who attributed her family’s improved financial stability to the wage increase. “All of us in my family were better off.”

Cepeda has pledged to deepen those social initiatives, though he has provided limited legislative details on how to fund them. Jorge Restrepo, a political analyst at Javeriana University in Bogotá, noted the candidate’s broad coalition. “He has all the indigenous support in Colombia, the Blacks of Colombia,” Restrepo said. “He’s radical in public politics but he’s been able to hide where he stands.”

Voters backing de la Espriella cited deteriorating public safety as their primary motivation. “I voted for Abelardo because we need an iron fist,” said Viviana Gonzalez, a 42-year-old resident of Bogotá. “I am really tired of Petro. We can’t go out anywhere. The guerrillas are taking our children. And de la Espriella is a businessman who will promote foreign investment, jobs and improve healthcare.”