Iowa’s last remaining statewide Democratic official, State Auditor Rob Sand, is seeking the governor’s office to succeed retiring GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds, a move that places the heavily Republican state at the center of national midterm strategy. Voters will cast ballots in Tuesday’s primaries, setting the stage for a fall campaign where Democrats see an opportunity to capitalize on shifting political headwinds, including elevated gas prices and changing presidential approval metrics.
Democrats have held no statewide executive offices in Iowa since Reynolds took office in 2017, after Republicans consolidated control of the governor’s mansion in 2011, both U.S. Senate seats by 2015, and all four U.S. House seats by 2023. National party strategists this year are targeting three competitive congressional districts and the open Senate seat vacated by Republican Joni Ernst. “I think this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for us to be able to win here in Iowa. I mean, this is a state that has completely hit the bottom,” said Josh Turek, a state representative running for the Democratic Senate nomination.
Sand, unopposed for his party’s nomination, has built a campaign around rural cultural touchstones and a critique of partisan polarization. He frequently avoids traditional Democratic messaging, instead focusing on economic stagnation and public health concerns. In an interview, he characterized the current political landscape as fractured. “What I’m going to emphasize is that our democracy is run by two private clubs who have a lot of people in them who are happier to have you hate your uncle if they can ring another $10 donation out of you,” Sand said. “They’re more focused on that than solving the problems that we face.”
The Cook Political Report’s recent rating change prompted a sharp response from state Republican leadership, with party chair Jeff Kaufmann dismissing the adjustment as reliant on internal Democratic polling. National Republicans appear to be treating the Democratic push seriously, with the Senate Leadership Fund announcing a $29 million expenditure in the state. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, whose southeastern Iowa district is widely viewed as highly competitive, acknowledged the shifting political climate. “Here in Iowa, we see Iowa as a purple state. So we don’t see Iowa as a ruby red state,” Miller-Meeks said, adding that the financial infusion into Senate defense is a standard response to the current electoral environment. She noted that historical precedent alone makes this a challenging cycle for incumbents.
Miller-Meeks faces former state House representative Christina Bohannan, who has raised $5.6 million to the Republican’s advantage in a district Bohannan narrowly lost in 2024. Bohannan credited her prior outreach to crossover voters for her competitiveness. “Thousands and thousands of Trump voters voted for me last cycle because I went out and met them where they are,” Bohannan said, noting she outperformed the Democratic presidential nominee in the district in the previous cycle. In the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, Turek is competing against state Sen. Zach Wahls. Wahls has criticized Turek’s ties to national party figures, arguing the party needs a candidate willing to distance itself from Washington leaders. Turek, a wheelchair user who represents a conservative-leaning district, has countered that his background makes him uniquely positioned to win over independent voters. “This is about electability, and on that, I don’t think there is much of a comparison,” Turek said. “There’s something specific about my story and background and résumé that has this unique ability to win over independents and moderate Republicans.” Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is running unopposed in her party’s Senate primary and holds Donald Trump’s endorsement for the fall ballot.
The Tuesday primaries will determine whether Democrats can unify behind candidates they view as best positioned to exploit the shifting national mood, or whether internal divisions will complicate efforts to flip deeply entrenched Republican strongholds in the upper Midwest.