Democrats say they plan to counter Republicans’ mid-decade push to redraw U.S. House districts, but an Associated Press analysis says the path is narrower for them as they prepare for the 2026 election cycle and then look ahead to 2028. The analysis frames the effort as an uneven contest shaped less by the mechanics of line drawing than by the legal and political restrictions some states impose on how parties can do it.
In many states, Democrats must work around self-imposed limits tied to ballot-backed reforms and commission structures that are intended to produce maps that do not benefit either party. The AP report says the contrast stems from Republicans’ ability, in some places, to move faster toward partisan configurations after President Donald Trump demanded sweeping redistricting in Republican-controlled states last year—an approach Democrats now want to match while navigating additional friction in several states.
The report points to Colorado, New Jersey, New York and Washington as examples where redistricting commissions draw lines that are not supposed to advantage either party. To replace those balanced maps with what the report describes as “ruthlessly gerrymandered” ones, Democrats would need permission from voters to nullify the politically popular commissions and allow a new mapmaking process.
The analysis also highlights the risk of procedural mistakes. It notes that courts could unwind new maps if Democrats get details wrong in their processes, describing what happened in Virginia this month as an example: the state Supreme Court invalidated voter-approved maps that would have given Democrats four more seats that the report calls winnable. The AP report says the court found the Democratic-controlled legislature did not follow the correct procedure when it placed the measure on the ballot.
Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, warned the effort would be difficult for Democrats, saying, “It’s going to be expensive, it’s going to be unpopular, and it’s going to be a challenge for them to do what they want,” according to the AP report. The analysis situates that challenge inside a broader environment that is already favoring Republicans in the near term, including the U.S. Supreme Court’s conservative majority decision described as gutting a key provision of the Voting Rights Act.
The AP report says Democrats remain favored to win control of the House this year despite setbacks in redistricting, but that a 2028 majority looks harder. It attributes part of that outlook to the impact of the recent high-court decision, describing a scenario in which Republicans could eliminate at least three majority-Black House seats in the South that Democrats now hold, and possibly eliminate additional majority-minority districts in states whose maps are already set for 2026.
Republican strategists are also looking at map changes in other places, the AP report says. It describes expectations that Republicans could gain additional seats through redistricting in Indiana, and through state map shifts in Kentucky and Kansas, where Democratic governors who have been able to block Republican maps will reach their term limits. The report says Democrats feel pressure to boost their prospects for 2028 even as they hope to take back the Senate and the White House that year, framing a possible attempt at a national ban on partisan gerrymandering.
John Bisogano, executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said Democrats see the next census as a stress point, adding, “Looking at the next census makes me all the more stressed to ban partisan gerrymandering at the federal level,” according to the AP report. The report describes how after the 2030 census, House seats will be reallocated toward states with the fastest population gains, which are projected to be mainly ones controlled by Republicans—at the expense of Democratic strongholds such as California and New York.
The AP analysis says constitutional and legislative barriers confront Democrats more often than Republicans in the redistricting competition. It notes that Republicans have their own legal hurdles—for example, that Florida’s redrawn congressional map hinges on the state Supreme Court throwing out Florida’s constitutional ban on partisan gerrymandering—but the report portrays Democrats as needing more complex political maneuvers in multiple states.
The report says Democrats’ options for adding winnable seats without impediments are limited, with the AP analysis indicating only Illinois and Oregon would offer that kind of opportunity. It then describes several other states where Democrats could potentially make large gains but only after threading narrow pathways: in Colorado, New York and New Jersey, Democrats could pursue close to double-digit gains in House seats only if they can change their constitutions; in Maryland, Democrats are moving a constitutional amendment to the November ballot that would give permission to eliminate the state’s sole Republican House seat in 2028.
Democrats have also embraced what the AP report describes as a shift from earlier support for nonpartisan redistricting. It points to California as a success case, saying a ballot measure there to adopt a new map passed last year easily to pick up as many as five seats. It also notes Virginia’s map passed more narrowly, but says Democrats remained resolute about implementing a 10-1 map in 2028.
In Washington state, the AP report says Democrats’ only chance to revise the constitution and redraw maps would require winning a two-thirds majority of the Legislature in November, described as a tall order. It adds that Democrats are also hoping to win control of maps in states such as Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by taking state legislative seats, while highlighting efforts to expand House competitiveness in places where Republicans currently hold many districts.
The AP report quotes Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Devin Remiker as arguing for aggressive actions, saying, “If we’ve learned anything, we’ve learned that when you know a knife fight is coming — bring a bazooka.” It presents Remiker’s argument as tied to the need for Democrats to respond to what Republicans are doing elsewhere in the redistricting cycle, even as voters and courts impose additional constraints.
In New York, the report says voters cannot join the redistricting fight until next year because the state constitution would need to be amended by a statewide vote. It also says Colorado Democrats would need voter permission in November to lift the commission’s map to permit a Democratic redrawing for 2028, while warning that the proposed initiative faces a state Supreme Court challenge and could face a rival measure from Republicans.
The AP analysis also describes political momentum and shifting incentives among Democrats themselves. It portrays Colorado as the most visible example of Democrats moving away from commission-based redistricting after Republicans used gains from the 2010 midterm election to redraw maps nationally, and it says now even candidates for governor who previously backed redistricting reform have changed course. The report adds that former President Barack Obama—who the analysis says made redistricting reform a pillar of his platform—has called for aggressive map redrawing nationwide.
Nicholas Stephanopolous, a Harvard law professor, said the party views Trump’s redistricting push as existential, adding, “I think they’re going to move heaven and earth to respond,” according to the AP report. The AP analysis also says Democrats see the GOP’s rush to gerrymander as an existential threat, with the party’s ability to convert election-year permission into durable map changes likely determined by whether it can survive both procedural challenges and the constitutional hurdles that Republicans may not face in the same way.