Deal diplomacy and GOP politics stay tangled as Iran talks remain uncertain
President Donald Trump said the United States is moving toward peace talks with Iran after discussions involving leaders of several Gulf countries and Israel, and he suggested an agreement has been largely negotiated. The statement, posted by Trump and discussed on NPR, also pointed to opening the Strait of Hormuz as a key element. At the same time, NPR senior White House correspondent Mara Liasson said the information publicly available still looks more like a step toward negotiations than a settled deal.
The NPR host, Ayesha Rascoe, asked Liasson what could be learned from Trump’s message and whether it suggested a deal or a route to one. Liasson said Trump portrayed the effort as a plan to reach an agreement, saying Trump spent the previous day talking with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan, Bahrain and Pakistan about “a memorandum of understanding pertaining to peace.”
Liasson said Trump also told an Israeli audience that discussions continued, and that final details would be announced soon, including the aspect that he said centered on opening the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, she said Iran’s foreign ministry described the memorandum as aimed at ending the war on all fronts but rejected any discussions about Iran’s nuclear program, leaving the nuclear issue unchanged.
Rascoe framed the diplomatic moment as a possible movement away from escalation, or at least a pause in hostilities. Liasson agreed that the public picture suggested the sides were not escalating at that point, but said the pattern of diplomacy could still stall, noting that the U.S. and Iran have appeared close to agreement before without a result.
Rascoe also tied the moment to the politics heading into November, pointing out that the crisis had lasted a little over 12 weeks and that many Americans, including some in Trump’s base, did not want it and were concerned about economic effects. Liasson said a deal would help politically more than no deal, describing an electorate she characterized as deeply unhappy, and saying Democrats can test better in the “generic ballot” question about who voters want running Congress.
Still, Liasson said Republicans have structural advantages in the midterms, including more money and court-sanctioned partisan redistricting, along with a map she said gives them fewer competitive seats. She also said polling indicates voters are reluctant to back Democrats because she characterized the Democratic brand as unpopular, limiting Democratic gains even when national trends favor them. As a result, she said Democrats in competitive districts likely need strategies to separate from the party brand, while Republicans in those districts likely need to separate from Trump, whom she described as historically unpopular.
Rascoe then asked whether Republican lawmakers separating from Trump through Trump’s own choices could backfire. Liasson said it could, describing how it is rare to see Republican lawmakers defy Trump but that lawmakers have done so, including Senate action that she said removed money from an immigration enforcement measure and delayed votes related to a fund to reimburse Trump allies whom critics said had been unfairly prosecuted. She said critics describe the roughly $1.8 billion effort as a “slush fund,” and she pointed to additional Republican senators who she said supported advancing a War Powers Resolution, including Bill Cassidy.
Liasson also said the Republican senators’ position reflects both concern about voting for what she described as Trump-unpopular policies as the midterms approach and anger at Trump’s intervention to defeat Republican incumbents he viewed as disloyal. She did not suggest a single path to how those tensions would play out, but said the combination could shape lawmakers’ risk calculations as November approaches.
On the diplomacy itself, Liasson said Secretary of State Marco Rubio characterized the memorandum as significant progress, saying Rubio described it as “significant progress” while suggesting more positive information could follow. She said Senate Republicans who support an earlier strike on Iran expressed concern, including concern about Iran’s role in the region and about Iran’s ability to retain nuclear ambitions even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened.