Kansas wheat farmers are bracing for what they describe as a deeply damaged growing season as drought, higher-than-average heat and sharp drops in conditions collide with rising costs and crop disease pressure, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates and interviews with growers.
In Montezuma, Kansas, Orville Williams, 76, said the season will not come out well. “All in all, it’s not going to be a good year,” Williams said, describing a farm that had produced a healthy crop every year since he was a teenager but that now faces a different combination of weather and economics.
USDA estimates point to the scale of the downturn. Growers are expected to see the smallest wheat crop in terms of production since 1972, with 1.56 billion bushels forecast for this year, down 21% from 2025—an especially harmful shift for Kansas, which ranks among the top U.S. producers of wheat.
The condition of the crop in Kansas, meanwhile, has deteriorated fast. An analysis of USDA data described in the reporting found that only five of the past 40 years had Kansas wheat crop in such poor shape, with 58% of the crop rated “poor” or “very poor” as of May 17. The last time fields were in as bad a condition was during a severe drought in 2023, Kansas State agronomist Romulo Lollato said, adding that the conditions are difficult for growers and affect consumers through higher bread prices and lost international market access for U.S. wheat.
Weather extremes have also fueled plant health and crop yield problems, according to the reporting. Record-setting drought and hotter-than-average temperatures have contributed to a worsening spread of wheat streak mosaic virus and barley yellow dwarf virus, which can damage the crop’s potential. Growers described the situation as a “double whammy,” combining the weather-driven stress with economic pressures that are limiting their ability to absorb losses.
Beyond the disease and drought effects, USDA data pointed to early season growth and quality risks. By the end of the first full week of May, 86% of wheat crops in Kansas had produced a seed head compared with 61% that was typical in the previous 10 years at the same point in the season. Brad Rippey, a USDA meteorologist, said the seed head is “genetically programmed” to produce before the plant dies, but if it does so too early, the result can be poor quality.
The drought has also pushed some farmers to give up on parts of their fields. USDA estimates cited in the reporting said only 32.4 million acres (13.1 million hectares) of wheat were planted this year, and harvested acreage was about 22 million. The reporting described abandonment—when farmers stop tending a crop before harvesting—as slightly above 32% of this year’s wheat crop nationwide, with Kansas about 17%, and noted that the United States has only seen a handful of historical years with winter wheat abandonment higher.
In western Kansas, wheat and corn farmer Mike Nickelson said rain is the core determinant, explaining that farmers can do the “very best” and still struggle if rainfall does not arrive. “Rain makes grain,” Nickelson said. “That’s the whole key. We can do the very best we can do and then if we don’t get the rain, then it makes it pretty tough.”
Even for growers who irrigate part of their land, the year’s balance has shifted. Williams said his irrigated yield had been close to 100 bushels of wheat per acre last year, but this year might be only 30 to 40. For his dryland wheat—dependent on rainfall and soil moisture—he estimated yields of 10 to 15 bushels per acre, with the larger forecast underscoring how uneven conditions have made planning difficult.
Growers also said costs are adding to the damage, leaving few options to replace potential revenue. Williams described traveling 150 to 200 miles a day for his work and said diesel fuel was up nearly $2 per gallon from one year earlier. The reporting said the war in Iran has sent fuel prices soaring and that the cost of seed and fertilizer has climbed quickly, with farmers already affected by consequences of the Trump administration’s trade policy. Nickelson said urea fertilizer previously cost about $400 a ton and that he is now paying between $600 and $700 a ton.
With the season already underway, Ben Palen, a fifth-generation farmer and farming consultant, said solutions remain limited and relief feels “minimal.” Crop insurance can account for losses, but Palen said the Trump administration has offered one-time bridge payments for qualifying farmers facing increasing costs amid trade disruptions and inflation, and that these funds are also limited. He also pointed to constraints on alternative strategies such as allowing wheat to fallow or planting something else later in the year, saying it is “a little late now” to try to plant an alternative on a failed wheat field because farmers lack soil moisture to start another crop.
Forecasters are looking toward the next months for potential changes in rainfall patterns. The reporting said forecasters are predicting a substantial El Nino, a cyclical process in which patches of the equatorial Pacific warm and alter weather patterns, and that in the U.S. it is expected to mean warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer—meaning any drought relief could take months to arrive. Nickelson added that the situation feels unfair given that farmers say they are trying to feed the world while suffering the most themselves.