As NOAA issued its seasonal outlook for the Atlantic this week, meteorologists pointed to a developing El Nino in the central Pacific as the main driver behind expectations for a less active Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA gave a 55% chance that the season will be below average, forecasting fewer named storms and fewer hurricanes than normal while emphasizing that storms can still be deadly.
The Atlantic season normally has 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three reaching major hurricane intensity of more than 110 mph (177 kph). In its outlook, NOAA projected eight to 14 named storms, with three to six of them strengthening enough to hit hurricane status and one to three intensifying into major hurricanes.
NOAA’s forecast also aligns with how other groups view the El Nino pattern’s influence on tropical cyclones. Eighteen other groups—private and academic—averaged a dozen named storms in their forecasts, with five becoming hurricanes and two major ones. Those forecasts also pointed to lower total activity, using the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which averages 80% of normal.
Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane seasonal forecasting science in 1984, predicted its lowest overall Atlantic activity since 2015, the strongest El Nino in the last 75 years. Colorado State’s hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach said the forecast is likely to be revised in June, and he described the change as part of a broader swing from the recent pattern in which nine of the last 10 Atlantic seasons were above normal or even hyperactive.
Researchers also tied the expected Atlantic slowdown to atmospheric and ocean conditions linked to El Nino. Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany, said El Nino is “the elephant in the room,” describing it as cyclic warming of parts of the central Pacific that warps weather patterns globally, especially during winter. NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs said Thursday there is a 98% chance El Nino will be present this summer and an 80% chance it will be moderate or strong.
Corbosiero and other scientists described El Nino’s effects on hurricane development as operating through wind shear and the movement of air that can disrupt storm organization. University at Albany scientist Brian Tang said a stronger-than-normal wind shear “tends to tilt storms,” pushing dry air into storms and preventing them from developing, and also limiting intensification. NOAA’s National Weather Service forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said that once a storm reaches hurricane strength with 74 mph winds, it can become less prone to being dampened by El Nino’s shear, describing it as “kind of like a self-feeding entity.”
Alongside El Nino, forecasters cited additional background factors that influence Atlantic hurricane formation. Rosencrans said dry conditions in Africa and water in the Atlantic that is only slightly warmer than normal also contribute to the forecast of a weaker Atlantic season.
Scientists also described how El Nino can shift the geographic “where” of storms rather than eliminate them entirely. NOAA said there is a 70% chance the eastern Pacific will have an above-normal season, forecasting 15 to 22 named storms there, with nine to 14 becoming hurricanes and five to nine reaching major hurricane strength. Rosencrans said the main area of central Pacific storm development shifts closer to Hawaii during El Ninos, and Corbosiero said eastern Pacific storms near Baja California can sometimes move away from land, though they can also turn and cause major damage, as in past examples including Hurricane Otis in 2023.
In the U.S. Pacific, the Hawaii government also pointed to preparedness despite the Atlantic outlook. John Bravender, a meteorologist in Honolulu, said El Ninos can make hurricane seasons longer because warmer waters can help storms maintain strength at higher latitudes and continue through more of the year. Gov. Josh Green said the state is preparing for hurricanes as other recent storms caused catastrophic flooding.
“We should expect a less active year than certainly what we’ve seen recently, and perhaps significantly so below average,” Corbosiero said, while warning that the low probability of a highly damaging outcome does not remove the danger. “But again, it only takes one to cause real devastation and destruction in the mainland U.S. or even in Hawaii.”