The Trump administration is applying to Cuba the same suite of pressure tactics it deployed against Venezuela — an oil blockade aimed at weakening the country’s economy, an expanding U.S. military footprint in the region, federal criminal charges against the country’s leadership, and a drumbeat of threats that military intervention remains on the table, according to reporting by the Associated Press.
Brian Finucane, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group and a former State Department lawyer, told the AP that Trump has treated the U.S. operation in Venezuela as a template for confronting other adversarial governments. “President Trump viewed the Venezuelan intervention as a fantastic success,” Finucane said. “And he’s sought to replicate the Venezuela model elsewhere, including in Iran. But obviously, Cuba, like Iran, is a very different country than Venezuela.”
The administration’s Cuba strategy has unfolded in stages. The U.S. has tightened an oil blockade designed to starve the Cuban government of energy revenue, much as it did in Venezuela before military action there. The Pentagon has increased its naval presence in the Caribbean, and the Justice Department has brought federal charges — including murder charges — against former Cuban President Raúl Castro. Trump has publicly and repeatedly signaled that Cuba could be the next target, telling supporters that “Cuba is next” after the administration’s operations in Venezuela and Iran.
The parallels are deliberate. In Venezuela, the administration imposed crippling economic sanctions, indicted Nicolás Maduro on drug-trafficking charges, positioned military assets in neighboring countries and, after weeks of escalating pressure, launched a military operation that removed Maduro from power. Trump subsequently described the operation as a model for confronting regimes his administration designates as adversaries.
Finucane and other analysts caution that the countries differ in ways that could undermine a straightforward replication. Venezuela’s economy had already collapsed under years of mismanagement and sanctions by the time of the U.S. military intervention. Its military was factionalized and its internal opposition had been organizing openly for years. Cuba’s government, by contrast, has survived more than six decades of U.S. economic pressure and retains a security apparatus built to withstand external destabilization campaigns. Its geography — an island requiring amphibious or airborne assault — poses different military challenges than Venezuela’s land borders with Colombia and Brazil.
The Cuba pressure campaign comes as the administration maintains U.S. military operations in both Venezuela and Iran, raising questions about the capacity of American forces to sustain simultaneous deployments across three theaters. The Pentagon has not publicly detailed force levels in the Caribbean, and the White House has not announced a timeline for any potential Cuba operation.