Kansas farmers describe the 2026 wheat season as a convergence of harsh weather, crop disease pressure and rising costs that have left many growers weighing insurance claims and whether they can absorb the losses. In Montezuma, Kansas, Orville Williams, 76, said, “All in all, it’s not going to be a good year,” a sentiment he said was driven by record-setting drought and hotter-than-average temperatures that have struck across the Plains early this year.
Williams farms 2,600 acres of wheat and has long managed the cycles of economic stress and uneven drought that have affected yields in prior decades, including periods through the 1980s. But this season has felt different to growers, not only because of the dryness and heat, but also because disease impacts tied to dry conditions have intensified.
The Kansas State agronomist Romulo Lollato said the weather and associated crop stress are “very tough conditions that growers are faced with right now,” adding that those pressures can reach beyond fields. He said the impact could show up at bakeries through higher bread prices, or through the United States losing some of the international wheat market.
Federal estimates underscore the scale of the challenge. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected the smallest U.S. wheat crop in terms of production since 1972, at 1.56 billion bushels this year, down 21% from 2025. For Kansas in particular, an analysis of USDA data showed 58% of the crop rated “poor” or “very poor” as of May 17, with the last time the fields were in as bad a condition during a severe drought in 2023.
Rippey, a USDA meteorologist, said dry conditions also sped up crop development in ways that may not bode well for quality. By the end of the first full week of May, 86% of Kansas wheat had produced a seed head, compared with 61% typical in the previous 10 years at the same point in the season; Rippey said the plant is “genetically programmed” to produce a head before dying, but doing so too early often results in poor quality.
Those same dry conditions have also translated into acreage loss. Only 32.4 million acres of wheat were planted this year to begin with, and harvested acreage hit 22 million, marking abandonment at slightly above 32% of this year’s wheat crop in USDA estimates; in Kansas, about 17% of the crop is being abandoned this year. Rippey said that, except for the 2022-2023 cycle, there have only been a handful of other years in history where U.S. winter wheat abandonment has been higher.
Beyond weather and plant disease—drought conditions have worsened the spread of wheat streak mosaic virus and barley yellow dwarf virus—growers also described an added pressure from costs that rise even when yields fall. Farmers said they are dealing with climbing input costs related to fertilizer, diesel fuel and tariffs, and Williams described the season as “kind of a double whammy,” tying fuel prices to broader disruptions and the war in Iran.
Williams said he drives 150 to 200 miles (240 to 320 kilometers) a day and that diesel is up nearly $2 per gallon from one year ago. Nickelson, 60, who farms in western Kansas, said, “Rain makes grain,” and described how limited moisture leaves farmers with little leverage—“That’s the whole key,” he said, adding, “We can do the very best we can do and then if we don’t get the rain, then it makes it pretty tough.”
Costs for seed and fertilizer have also risen quickly. Nickelson said urea fertilizer, a type of fertilizer for agriculture, previously cost $400 a ton but he is now paying between $600 and $700 a ton, while Palen, 70, said that even when options exist, relief feels limited.
For growers who see yields drop, crop insurance can provide some accounting for losses, but Palen said that support goes only so far. The Trump administration has offered one-time bridge payments for qualifying farmers of a variety of crops to aid their increasing costs amid trade disruptions and inflation, but Palen described the funds as limited. He also said alternatives such as allowing wheat to fallow or planting something unplanned are not practical at this point in the year, describing the timing problem: “It’s a little late now to try to plant something on say, a wheat crop that’s failed on a particular farm,” because “we just don’t have soil moisture to get another crop started,” he said.
Forecasts are calling for a substantial El Nino, a natural warming pattern in the equatorial Pacific that can change weather patterns, including rainfall. Even with that outlook, Nickelson said the situation is testing farmers’ ability to pass the work to the next generation, noting that “My son is here farming with me” and questioning whether he wants him to continue amid what he called “right now it’s just tough.” Palen, too, said that “This is probably about as challenging of a time to be a farmer that I can recollect,” describing it as “a pretty serious situation.”