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President Donald Trump appeared to hit a wall with Iran as a fragile ceasefire continued, setting out a pattern of hard pressure and shifting deadlines that advisers and outside experts said has not moved Tehran from long-standing positions.
On Monday, Trump said he had put plans for the imminent resumption of attacks on hold at the request of Gulf Arab states. He said the pause reflected that “serious negotiations are now taking place,” adding that “as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond.” He also said he had called off strikes planned for Tuesday.
Even as he announced the pause, Trump kept up the threat, telling military leaders “to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached.” The Associated Press reported that Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Tehran and then backed off.
A White House spokesperson defended the approach, saying in a statement to the Associated Press that Trump’s “preference is always peace and diplomacy,” but that the president would only accept a deal that puts America first. Spokesperson Olivia Wales said Trump “holds all the cards and wisely keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.”
The diplomacy and pressure have been intertwined with the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane for global oil supplies. The AP report said Iran still had leverage there even as the United States has enforced a blockade of Iranian ports, and it described fallout in global energy markets that raised gasoline prices for U.S. consumers—an issue playing into domestic political pressures.
The AP said Trump’s goals have remained unrealized, including Iran’s unwillingness to abandon its nuclear program or ballistic missile development or to stop supporting regional proxies in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. It also said Iran’s response has been to dig in rather than move toward Washington’s demands, after Trump withdrew from a nuclear deal negotiated during the Obama administration.
Since the ceasefire went into effect last month, Trump has criticized the pace of negotiations, according to the AP report. After a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump posted online that “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them.”
Iran responded quickly to the threats, with Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, telling state television that “Our armed forces’ fingers are on the trigger, while diplomacy is also continuing.”
Outside experts said the ceasefire has not created a perception of defeat on either side. Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group, said both Washington and Tehran appeared to be working on the assumption that time favors them—because blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz raise costs for the other side while providing a “reprieve” to prepare for a potential resumption of hostilities.
Vaez said the impact of U.S. economic pressure had not produced what he described as the pain threshold needed to accept Washington’s terms, saying Iranian officials have not reached the point of accepting what it perceives as “capitulatory demands.” David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state for the Middle East in Trump’s first administration, described the situation as “a stalemate,” and said Trump likely has “misgivings” about returning to full-on military conflict because of Gulf Arab anxieties about retaliation and energy-market volatility.
Rich Goldberg, an Iran hawk and former National Security Council official who is now at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Trump still operates from a position of strength, including with the Strait of Hormuz. Goldberg also said that while reopening the strait would ease short-term “pain at the pump” in the United States, it was not critical, describing it as “distracting people from U.S. overall energy dominance,” and saying “This is not a permanent crisis.”