New England’s power-grid operator projects that electricity consumption across the region will grow by roughly 9% over the next 10 years, a report issued May 1 shows — a forecast that would end a roughly two-decade stretch of declining demand. The projection, released by ISO New England, the nonprofit that manages the six-state regional power grid, represents a retreat from the 11% growth the operator forecast for the same period in its 2025 report.
The shift in the near-term outlook stems partly from changes in federal climate and energy policy, according to the grid operator. The 9% figure nonetheless signals a turning point for the region, as widespread adoption of heat pumps for home heating and cooling, along with increasing sales of electric vehicles, begin to meaningfully increase the load on the electric system.
“The projected growth for the New England power grid would reverse the past two decades’ trend of falling electricity use as heating and cooling systems, lighting and appliances all grew more energy-efficient,” the operator’s report said. The report also noted that demand had fallen as more households and businesses installed solar panels that generate power “behind the meter,” reducing the amount of electricity drawn from the grid itself.
At the state level, at least one New England state is holding to its own clean-energy trajectory irrespective of the federal posture. The Efficiency Maine Trust, the quasi-independent agency that administers the state’s energy efficiency programs, said Maine’s own goals and programs remain intact. The trust oversees a portfolio of programs that offer rebates and incentives for heat pumps, weatherization and other efficiency measures — the same technologies driving the demand increase the grid operator projects.
The modest growth forecast arrives as the Northeast confronts rising electricity costs that have become a central issue for ratepayers and policymakers. A separate strain on the grid from the expansion of data centers powering artificial intelligence workloads has prompted utility-rate battles across the country, and New England’s aging transmission infrastructure faces the added strain of electrifying sectors of the economy that have historically run on fossil fuels.