President Donald Trump’s tough-talk foreign policy toward Iran has run into resistance during a tenuous ceasefire centered on the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran showing little sign of changing its negotiating stance despite U.S. threats and military pressure.
In recent days, Trump and top aides have framed the U.S. effort as succeeding even as the status of negotiations remained hard to pin down. Trump said Monday that he put plans for an imminent resumption of attacks on hold at the request of Gulf Arab states, saying “serious negotiations are now taking place” and predicting a deal would be “very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond.” He also told military leaders to be ready to escalate if the talks fail.
Although Trump said he had called off planned strikes for Tuesday, he continued to warn of further force. He said he had instructed military leaders “to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice,” in the event that an acceptable deal was not reached—while repeatedly setting deadlines for Tehran and then backing off, according to the AP reporting.
The White House defended the pressure approach on Monday, with spokesperson Olivia Wales saying in a statement to The Associated Press that “Trump’s preference is always peace and diplomacy” but that the administration would accept only a deal that puts America first. She added that the president “holds all the cards and wisely keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.”
Iran’s response to the push has been quick and blunt in parallel messaging about continued readiness while diplomacy proceeds. Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said on state television, “Our armed forces’ fingers are on the trigger, while diplomacy is also continuing.” The AP story described the exchange as part of an accelerating cycle of threats and counter-threats, even as negotiations continued.
Analysts said neither side sees itself as losing the confrontation, which helps explain why deadlines and escalations have not produced a breakthrough. Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group, said Washington and Tehran are operating under assumptions that time favors them—each believing the Strait of Hormuz blockade and counter-blockade raises the costs for the other while creating a reprieve to prepare for hostilities. Vaez also said Iranian officials have not reached a “pain threshold” that would lead them to accept demands they view as capitulatory.
David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state for the Middle East in Trump’s first administration, said the situation had become “a stalemate.” He also described Trump as having “misgivings” about returning to full-on conflict, citing Gulf Arab anxieties about Iranian retaliation and the volatility of energy markets that would carry political implications for Trump in the United States.
Rich Goldberg, an Iran hawk and former National Security Council official in both of Trump’s administrations who is now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the pressure campaign still reflects a position of strength, including through the Strait of Hormuz. Goldberg said that reopening the strait would ease the “pain at the pump” Americans feel, but he argued it is not critical and described it as “not a permanent crisis.”
A central factor for the negotiations is that Iran retains leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, which carries global oil shipments, even while the United States has enforced a blockade of Iranian ports. The AP story said shifts in global energy markets after the conflict’s blockades contributed to gasoline price increases in the United States, pressuring consumers and raising risks for Trump’s Republican Party ahead of congressional midterm elections in November.
The AP also contrasted the Iran campaign with pressure tactics the Trump administration used elsewhere: it said oil blockades squeezed Venezuela and Cuba and that the Trump administration quickly ousted Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, but that those efforts did not translate as effectively as a bargaining chip as Iran’s control over the shipping lane.
The AP cited an AP-NORC poll conducted last month suggesting Trump’s approval on the economy has slumped, with even Republicans showing less faith in his leadership amid rising costs. It also noted that Trump has previously called the nuclear deal negotiated with world powers during the Obama administration “the worst ever” and pulled out in 2018—while the AP reporting said Iran has so far dug in rather than accept limitations Trump wants, including on its nuclear program, ballistic missile development, or support for regional proxies.