Summary
The Cruise Lines International Association forecast that cruise travel will continue growing in 2026, even after outbreaks of illnesses including hantavirus and norovirus appeared in recent headlines. In mid-April, the industry trade group estimated that 38.3 million people would travel on ocean-going ships this year, up 4% from a record 37.2 million passengers last year, according to the Associated Press report published May 17.
Industry representatives and travel experts told AP that, despite outbreaks becoming major news topics, they expect demand to remain steady because many vacations are booked well ahead of departure and because travelers often view disclosed onboard sickness as an isolated episode rather than a trend that reshapes near-term plans. Rob Kwortnik, an associate professor at Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration who closely watches the cruise industry, said the cruise market has proved resilient to similar stories, telling AP that “The cruise consumer seems to be somewhat Teflon when it comes to stories like this.”
In one recent case that drew attention, three passengers aboard the MV Hondius died from hantavirus after the ship stopped in Argentina, AP reported. Oceanwide Expeditions, the Dutch company that owns the ship, said it does not foresee any changes to its operations, and AP said the company expects a cruise setting sail from Keflavik, Iceland, on May 29.
Other cruise-related health incidents are also in the news. AP reported that a recent norovirus outbreak aboard a British ship docked in Bordeaux, France, had prompted additional attention, and it said that some large cruise companies did not respond to AP questions about whether customers are still booking after the coverage.
Travel booking platforms and consumer-demand signals were cited as support for the industry’s view that demand is not weakening. AP said CruiseCompete.com, an online marketplace where consumers compare offers from travel agents, booked 31.7% more cabins in the first half of May compared with the same period last year, and that CEO Bob Levinstein said, “I can categorically say that we have not seen any drop in demand.”
Levinstein told AP that norovirus is “conflated with cruises” in the minds of many Americans, describing how U.S. Centers for Disease Control reporting requirements shape perceptions. He said the CDC requires ships to disclose when 3% or more of passengers report symptoms, adding that on a 5,000-passenger ship, illness affecting 3% of people “goes completely unnoticed by the vast majority of vacationers, and experienced cruisers know this.”
Kwortnik said the timing of cruise reservations helps limit the impact of day-to-day headlines because trips are booked far in advance—at least six months, and often as much as a year. “People who are booking cruises tomorrow are thinking about the holidays,” he said, suggesting that outbreaks make less difference to those choices than longer-term considerations.
AP also reported that refunds are unlikely even if travelers become uneasy once a voyage is underway. Andrew Coggins, a cruise industry analyst and professor at Pace University’s Lubin School of Business, said that even if demand is affected, it would likely show up over the longer term, adding that for cruises departing soon, travelers may be past the point where they can get their money back.
Coggins pointed to the cruise industry’s experience with the COVID-19 era as an example of how the market recovered and why new outbreaks may not automatically translate into sustained booking declines. He said cruises did not see an upswing in passengers again until 2022 after the pandemic devastated the industry, and he said there are still fewer cruise passengers from China and Japan than before COVID, while demand elsewhere is booming.
Coggins said cruise lines are expanding capacity through new ship orders extending out to 2037 and that companies see growing demand. He also linked current growth to broader appeal, saying a recent U.S. survey by Bank of America found Generation Z respondents and millennials were most likely to say they planned to cruise over the next 12 months.
Kwortnik cited the overall value proposition of cruising when explaining why demand persists. He told AP that “On average, it costs more just to stay at a hotel in Miami than it does to sail on a cruise out of Miami – and the cruise includes lodging, multiple destinations, food, entertainment, and transportation all in the fare,” while other travelers described themselves as continuing to book.
Relatedly, AP reported that some individual cruise-goers said they were not changing plans in response to the hantavirus story. Jenni Fielding, who blogs and posts social media videos about cruise trips under the moniker Cruise Mummy, told AP, “I have eight cruises booked, and I’ll absolutely be booking another,” adding that she believes cruising is as safe as other holidays if travelers follow health advice and official guidance. Scott Eddy, a hospitality influencer docked in Monaco, told AP that fellow passengers had not mentioned the hantavirus outbreak during his cruise.
During an investor conference call Thursday, Switzerland-based cruise line Viking told AP that demand for its river cruises softened briefly in the first three months of 2026, after the Iran war began, before quickly rebounding. AP reported that Viking said 92% of its 2026 river cruises and 38% of its 2027 cruises were booked, and that the company did not mention hantavirus or norovirus in its comments.