On Saturday, Louisiana Republicans will cast ballots in a newly configured primary that amounts to a test of Sen. Bill Cassidy’s political survival. The two-term incumbent, who drew President Donald Trump’s wrath by voting to convict him after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection, faces state Treasurer John Fleming and Rep. Julia Letlow — whom Trump endorsed in January — in the first U.S. Senate primary held under Louisiana’s revamped election system.
Trump’s endorsement of Letlow is the latest move in a sustained campaign to purge Republicans he considers disloyal. Cassidy has been a top target since the impeachment trial, in which he was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict. Though Trump was acquitted, his focus on Cassidy has not waned. A Cassidy defeat on Saturday, the Associated Press reported, would further consolidate the Senate GOP behind the president and demonstrate his enduring influence over the party’s direction.
The primary is also a test of Louisiana’s new election mechanics. A 2024 state law replaced the traditional “jungle primary” — in which all candidates, regardless of party, appeared on a single ballot — with separate party primaries for U.S. Senate, state Supreme Court, Public Service Commission, and state school board. The change took effect this year. Voters registered with a party may vote only in their own party’s primary, though independent and unaffiliated voters can participate in either. About 3 million Louisianans were registered as of May 1, roughly 1.1 million each as Democrats and Republicans, with another 813,000 unaffiliated.
Early and absentee voting figures indicate robust pre-election engagement. As of Thursday, approximately 255,000 ballots had already been cast, with Democrats returning 44% of those early votes and Republicans 41%. In the 2024 presidential primaries, which followed a similar party-primary format, about 41% of the Republican vote and 45% of the Democratic vote was cast before primary day, suggesting the early-vote share this year is similar. In-person Election Day voting will supplement those totals when polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
The state’s voting geography gives some indication of where the contest may be decided. In past Republican primaries, St. Tammany Parish north of New Orleans has been the top vote contributor, while Caddo Parish, home to Shreveport, and Lafayette Parish have also played outsized roles. Trump’s 2016 narrow primary win in Louisiana was powered by a large margin in Jefferson Parish and losses in East Baton Rouge and Caddo. Cassidy’s previous Senate wins in 2014 and 2020 came under the jungle primary, where his main opposition was Democratic.
Saturday’s ballot also includes primaries for state Supreme Court, Public Service Commission, and the state school board, plus five proposed constitutional amendments. U.S. House races were originally set to use the new party-primary system, but state Republicans hastily adopted legislation reinstating the jungle primary for those contests after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Louisiana’s current congressional map, which had included a majority-Black district favoring Democrats. House candidates will still appear on ballots, but votes cast for them will not be counted, and the House jungles primary has been rescheduled for November 3 alongside the general election.
The Associated Press will not call a winner until it determines there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If no candidate secures a majority in a primary, a runoff will be held June 27. A general election follows on Nov. 3, with a potential December 12 runoff for any contests that remain undecided.