Burnham seeks Labour leadership path by winning Makerfield by-election

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Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is betting that a by-election can turn him from a popular Labour figure into a credible challenger to Prime Minister Keir Starmer—starting with a special election in the Makerfield constituency. The route to Parliament opened after Labour lawmaker Josh Simons said he would step aside to make way for Burnham, who had been blocked from running earlier this year.

The by-election is expected within weeks, and Labour leadership questions could follow quickly depending on whether Burnham succeeds. Starmer has vowed to continue leading, but the political temperature within Labour has been rising amid a slump in the party’s approval ratings and growing calls from lawmakers in the House of Commons for Starmer to stand down.

Burnham first needs to win his seat and return to Parliament, where he could mount a challenge to Starmer’s leadership—potentially alongside other candidates, including former Health Secretary Wes Streeting. Burnham is widely viewed as Starmer’s biggest would-be rival, in part because Burnham is perceived to be to the political left of the prime minister.

Burnham’s public image has become part of the argument for his potential leadership bid. He is known as the “King of the North,” a nickname his Labour supporters say reflects his northern backing and his appeal beyond London’s political establishment, including among working-class voters. The AP noted the moniker’s reference to Jon Snow from “Game of Thrones” as a sign of respect for Burnham’s profile, which has been tied to northern identity and culture.

His political record also shapes how his supporters and detractors assess him. The AP described Burnham as having won three sizable mayoral victories since 2017, while noting that he previously tried twice for Labour Party leadership and lost badly—in 2010 and again in 2015. The report said his time as an MP ended after 16 years in Parliament, and that after becoming mayor he adjusted his public style, moving from suits and ties to a more casual look that he and his allies believe helped him connect with voters.

Burnham’s rise as a communicator became more pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the AP reported that he became a de facto spokesman for northern England by repeatedly pressing Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson over what Burnham called a “London-centric” approach to the crisis. If he wins the Makerfield by-election, he would have to quit as mayor, because the parliamentary move would conflict with his current job.

The road to Makerfield also runs through Reform UK, the party that is expected to be central to the contest. The AP said that all wards in the Makerfield constituency were won by Reform in local races, and it highlighted Farage’s warning that his party would “throw absolutely everything at it.” Labour’s challenges are compounded by the fact that the by-election would come after Labour took a beating in U.K.-wide local elections this month, which the AP linked to plummeting approval ratings for Starmer.

Labour’s internal leadership mechanics remain tied to parliamentary arithmetic. The AP said Labour has not ousted one of its leaders while in government, but that there is a process: if Burnham wins, he would either trigger a leadership contest or join one. A member of Parliament needs the support of a fifth—81—of Labour’s 403 lawmakers to trigger a leadership challenge, and the AP said Starmer would automatically be entitled to run if that happens.

Streeting, who resigned as health secretary on Thursday, confirmed on Saturday that he would stand if and when the leadership race is triggered. In comments to the AP, Streeting said, “We need a proper contest with the best candidates on the field, and I’ll be standing,” and the report said he also suggested he would “lack legitimacy” without Burnham having a chance to return to Parliament. Streeting argued that the future of the U.K. was at stake in the next general election and warned Labour risked becoming “the handmaidens of Nigel Farage” if the party did not heed the electorate’s warnings from recent voting.

Others under discussion as potential contenders include former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, defense minister Al Carns and former party leader Ed Miliband. Political scientists say Burnham’s candidacy will be tested not just by whether he can beat Starmer, but by whether he can win against Reform in a constituency where Reform has been gaining local support. Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London told the AP that Burnham can capitalize on his “big name” reputation and on his track record of getting things done, but he also called the Makerfield contest a useful test: if Burnham cannot beat Reform there, Bale said, he would not be much use to Labour as leader.