The Vatican’s last-ditch warning to the Society of St. Pius X, issued Wednesday, threatened automatic excommunication for the group’s leaders if they proceed with the planned consecration of four new bishops on July 1. Cardinal Víctor Manuel Fernández, prefect of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, said in a statement that Pope Leo XIV was praying “so that the leaders of the Society of St. Pius X may reconsider the extremely grave decision they have made.”

The SSPX, founded in 1970 in Switzerland in opposition to the modernizing reforms of the Second Vatican Council, has no canonical status in the Catholic Church and has been out of communion with the Holy See since 1988, when its founder, Archbishop Marcel Lefebvre, consecrated four bishops without papal consent. Lefebvre and the bishops were promptly excommunicated.

Nevertheless, the group has expanded significantly. It now counts two bishops, 733 priests, 264 seminarians, 145 religious brothers, 88 oblates and 250 religious sisters, according to its own statistics. Its schools, seminaries and parishes operate in dozens of countries. The loss of its two aging bishops as effective ministers, SSPX superior Rev. Davide Pagliarani has argued, demanded new consecrations to serve a global flock.

Pagliarani said the looming crisis had sparked debate over what the SSPX considers a broader crisis of faith. “Now, what is at stake today is not an opinion, nor a sensibility, nor a preferential option, nor a particular nuance in the interpretation of a text, but the faith and morals that a Catholic must know, profess, and practice in order to save his soul and reach paradise,” he said in remarks on the group’s website.

The threatened consecrations are the first tangible test for Pope Leo XIV, who began his pontificate pledging to pacify relations with traditionalist Catholics. Those relations deteriorated under Pope Francis, who in 2021 reimposed restrictions on the celebration of the old Latin Mass that his predecessor, Benedict XVI, had relaxed in 2007. Francis said Benedict’s reform had become a source of division and had been exploited by Catholics opposed to Vatican II.

The crackdown, known by the Latin title Traditionis Custodes, riled conservatives and became one of the most divisive acts of Francis’s 12-year papacy. Many traditionalists loyal to Rome who oppose the restrictions are sympathetic to the SSPX, viewing it as the collateral damage of a wider campaign against traditional liturgy.

The traditionalist blog Rorate Caeli wrote Wednesday that Francis’s crackdown had actually created the “crisis” the SSPX now laments. “Traditionalists fully understand the need for respect for authority; but we cannot have both at the same time: a stated will to destroy the traditional Roman Liturgy forever (Traditionis custodes) and a complete prohibition of means to salvage that,” the blog wrote. It called on the Vatican to “make clear that Traditional Catholics are once again welcomed and loved in the church” by restoring the pre-2021 status quo.

The Vatican’s statement appeared to close the door on any such reversal, describing the planned consecrations as a schismatic act. If the SSPX goes ahead, the July 1 ceremony would be the most serious rupture with Rome since Lefebvre’s initial break nearly four decades ago and would leave Leo facing an open split with a growing parallel church at the outset of his reign.