U.S. students are in the grip of a “reading recession” that began long before the COVID-19 pandemic shuttered classrooms, according to a sweeping new analysis of state test scores. The national Education Scorecard, produced by scholars at Harvard, Stanford, and Dartmouth, examined results from third through eighth grade in over 5,000 school districts across 38 states. It found that, while schools have poured resources into catching kids up, reading scores nationally remain nearly half a grade level below where they were before the pandemic.
The erosion in reading is not a recent phenomenon. The National Assessment of Educational Progress has documented declining scores for eighth graders since 2013 and for fourth graders since 2015. Thomas Kane, a Harvard professor who helped create the Scorecard, described the pandemic’s impact as a “mudslide that had followed seven years of steady erosion in achievement.”
From 2022 to 2025, the study found meaningful growth in reading scores in only five states—Louisiana, Maryland, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Indiana—and the District of Columbia. The common thread connecting these improving states was a mandated shift toward a phonics-based instructional model known as the “science of reading.” For years, many schools used methods that encouraged children to guess words from context clues. The new laws require a focus on decoding words by sounding them out, alongside screening for learning disabilities like dyslexia and hiring instructional coaches for teachers.
The reforms, however, are not a guaranteed fix. Some states, including Florida, Arizona, and Nebraska, have adopted parts of the science of reading framework but still saw test scores fall. In Modesto, California, schools took a different path by pairing the new reading methods with a major investment in teacher training, including paying educators a $5,000 stipend to complete an extensive literacy program. The result was test score growth equivalent to an extra 13 weeks of learning in reading and 18 weeks in math, though overall scores remain far below grade level.
In Detroit, a focus on consistent attendance has been key to improvement. After a 2016 lawsuit alleging students were denied the “right to read” led to a settlement of over $94 million, the Detroit Public Schools Community District rebuilt its academic systems and hired attendance agents to go door-to-door. Samantha Ciaffone, a first-grade teacher at Munger Elementary-Middle School, said daily absenteeism in her class has dropped from seven or eight students to one or two. “It makes such a difference,” she said.
The picture in math is brighter. Almost every state in the analysis saw math score improvements from 2022 to 2025, and student absenteeism declined in most states. The South has emerged as a particular bright spot. Louisiana and Alabama were the only states where math scores were higher in 2025 than before the pandemic. Louisiana is also the only state to surpass its pre-pandemic reading average, with 87% of its traditional public school students in districts where scores are higher than in 2019.
Researchers say the progress, while uneven, shows that systemic improvement is possible. “We made enormous progress as a country in terms of educational success from over a 30-year period,” said Stanford professor Sean Reardon. “And so I think that says, as a country, we can improve education and educational opportunity.”