The Democratic primary for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District — the seat that produces the state’s lone split electoral vote and is known as the “blue dot” — remained too close to call late Tuesday, with activist Denise Powell leading state Sen. John Cavanaugh by roughly 2 percentage points, according to the Associated Press. Powell had about 51,000 votes to Cavanaugh’s count, but Douglas County, which accounts for more than 90% of the district, had not yet reported a significant number of ballots and county officials could not estimate the total outstanding Tuesday night. They said they expected to provide that information Wednesday afternoon.
The unusually tight contest has drawn national attention largely because of what Nebraska’s unusual electoral vote allocation means for presidential politics. Nebraska and Maine are the only states that split their electoral votes by congressional district, and the 2nd District has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee three times since 2008 — most recently in 2020 — earning the “blue dot” moniker. Some Democrats have framed the primary as a fight for the district’s very future, arguing that a Cavanaugh victory could backfire.
The argument against Cavanaugh has little to do with his policy positions. Cavanaugh, a state senator, would vacate his legislative seat if he moves to Congress, and Republican Gov. Jim Pillen would appoint a replacement. Democrats and allied groups say that could tip the balance in the state Legislature toward a GOP supermajority, giving Republicans the votes to abolish the electoral split or to redraw district lines before the next census. Republicans tried and failed in 2024 to move Nebraska to a winner-take-all system. The super PAC New Democrat Majority aired ads warning, “Our Blue Dot. We fought hard for it. But if John Cavanaugh goes to Congress, it could all fall down.” EMILY’s List, a national group that backs women running for office, called Cavanaugh’s candidacy “a gift to MAGA Republicans.”
Powell, who co-founded the progressive group Women Who Run Nebraska, spoke to supporters at her election night party. “Hopefully, we wake up tomorrow morning to some good news,” she said. “I think people are ready for that fired up mom. I think that they’re looking for change, and hopefully they see me as the person to help Nebraska to bring it.” Cavanaugh, a supporter of labor unions, told his gathering, “This campaign is fueled by working people. We stand in solidarity with those working people.”
Outside an Omaha polling place, Beth Pepitone said she voted for Powell to preserve the blue dot. “I just think we’re going in the wrong direction and it’s very sad,” she said. “I want to preserve the ‘blue dot.’” Independent voter Hayden Kephart said her top concern was inflation. “Obviously the price of everything has really gone up,” she said. “And the price of oil can be a factor in everyday life and travel plans.”
The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican Brinkner Harding in November. Harding has Trump’s endorsement in a district Trump carried in 2016. Democrats consider the seat one of their top targets because retiring Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican who has distanced himself from Trump at times, has held it for five terms. Powell has drawn support from out-of-state groups including EMILY’s List, while Cavanaugh has touted his labor backing, including the Teamsters.
In other Nebraska primary results Tuesday, U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts easily won the Republican nomination for a full term. Ricketts was appointed to the seat in 2023 and won a 2024 special election; he will face independent Dan Osborn in November. Osborn, an industrial mechanic and military veteran, came within 7 percentage points of defeating GOP Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024. Democrats are not expected to field their own candidate, after Cindy Burbank won the party’s primary and said she would drop out to rally behind Osborn. Gov. Jim Pillen won the Republican gubernatorial primary, while former state Sen. Lynne Walz won the Democratic nomination.