Nebraska Democratic primary too close as Powell leads Cavanaugh
The Democratic primary for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District House seat was too early to call late Tuesday, with Denise Powell holding an approximately 2 percentage point lead over state Sen. John Cavanaugh as election officials counted more than 51,000 votes, the Associated Press reported.
Powell’s lead underscored how closely the contest was tracking in the Omaha-based district, where the AP said Douglas County accounts for more than 90% of the district’s voters. The district has a history of counting a significant number of votes after election day, and county officials were unable to provide an estimate of the number of outstanding ballots late Tuesday. The county expected to provide additional information about outstanding ballots on Wednesday afternoon.
At Powell’s election night gathering, she said, “Hopefully, we wake up tomorrow morning to some good news.” She also said she believed voters were looking for change and that they would see her as “the person to help Nebraska to bring it.”
The seat is open because Republican U.S. Rep. Don Bacon is retiring, and the winner of the Democratic primary is expected to face Republican Brinkner Harding in November. Harding was endorsed by President Donald Trump, and the AP described the general-election matchup as one of Democrats’ top targets.
“Blue dot” politics in Nebraska’s Electoral College split
The district draws national attention because Nebraska is one of just two states that splits its presidential electoral votes. The AP said the 2nd District has voted for Democratic presidential nominees three out of five times since 2008, a distinction local Democrats refer to as a “blue dot” amid an otherwise Republican-leaning state.
The AP also reported that some Democrats argued the “blue dot” was effectively at stake in the primary. Powell’s supporters said a Cavanaugh victory would endanger the district’s special status, arguing that because he would be leaving his state legislative seat for Congress, it would be easier for Republicans in the Nebraska Legislature to change the law that allows Nebraska to split its Electoral College votes.
The same argument framework shaped the contest’s broader pitch to voters, with some supporters emphasizing not only congressional control but the state policy consequences they associate with legislative appointments. Outside an Omaha polling place, Beth Pepitone said she voted for Powell because she wanted someone who would stand up to Trump and because, as she put it, she wanted “to preserve the ‘blue dot.’”
Other Nebraska primaries: Ricketts, Pillen, and Walz
While the House primary remained unsettled, the AP said a key Senate contest produced clarity on Tuesday night. U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts won the GOP primary and is seeking his first full term, after being appointed in 2023 to replace former Sen. Ben Sasse and then winning a 2024 special election.
Ricketts’ November general-election opponent will be independent candidate Dan Osborn, an industrial mechanic and military veteran. The AP noted that Osborn came within 7 points of defeating Republican U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer in her 2024 reelection bid.
On the Democratic side of the November Senate matchup, the AP said Democrats are not expected to promote their own general-election competitor after Cindy Burbank won the party’s primary. The AP said Burbank plans to drop out of the race and rally behind Osborn, and it cited a statement on her website saying Osborn “deserves a fair shot against Ricketts.” The Nebraska Democratic Party said it would support Osborn as well.
In the governor’s race, the AP reported that incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Pillen won his party’s primary. Former state Sen. Lynne Walz won the Democratic nomination.
Democrats’ warnings to voters about Cavanaugh’s legislative seat
In the 2nd District House contest, the AP said the Democratic attack on Cavanaugh was centered less on his own policies and more on the downstream effect a congressional win could have in the state Legislature. Opponents and groups backing them flooded mailboxes, airwaves and social media warning that if he won the congressional primary, Nebraska’s Republican governor would appoint a conservative Republican to replace him in the Legislature.
They argued that the appointment could give state Republicans enough votes to pursue policy priorities they associate with stricter limitations on abortion and transgender rights. The AP said some Democrats also warned that a change of this type could empower Republicans to enact midcycle redistricting and to revise Nebraska’s electoral-vote system toward a winner-take-all approach.
The AP said Republicans failed in 2024 to pass a bill that would have made Nebraska’s Electoral College votes winner-take-all. It also cited a TV ad by the super PAC New Democrat Majority warning, “Our Blue Dot. We fought hard for it. But if John Cavanaugh goes to Congress, it could all fall down.”
Outside groups have also backed the competing House candidates. The AP reported that EMILY’s List put its resources behind Powell and called Cavanaugh’s candidacy “a gift to MAGA Republicans.”
A close and increasingly contentious primary contest
The AP described the primary as ideologically similar on much of the candidates’ shared platform, but it said the top contenders began attacking one another more aggressively in the days leading up to the vote. Powell, who is Latina, has co-founded Women Who Run Nebraska, a political action committee that supports progressive female candidates, and the AP said she has a decade of Democratic political activism but has never held office.
Cavanaugh, a state senator, highlighted support for labor unions, including the Teamsters, during the AP’s account of his campaign messaging. He told supporters Tuesday night, “This campaign is fueled by working people,” and “We stand in solidarity with those working people.”
The AP’s report also included voter concerns at polling places, including independent Hayden Kephart, who said inflation was her biggest concern. She said, “Obviously the price of everything has really gone up,” and added that “the price of oil can be a factor in everyday life and travel plans.”
The winner will head into what the AP described as a highly competitive general election for a seat that Republican Don Bacon has held for five terms. The AP noted that Trump won the district in 2016, and it said Bacon has clashed with Trump.