The consumer price index released Tuesday showed that Americans paid 3.2% more for all food — both at home and at restaurants — than they did a year ago, the highest overall food inflation reading since early 2023. Price increases were broad but uneven: fresh produce, meat and coffee accounted for much of the spike, while milk, chicken and butter held steady or declined.
Raymond Campise, owner of Sparrow Market, an independent grocer in Ann Arbor, Michigan, said every vendor he orders from — meat, produce and dry goods — has added fuel surcharges to deliveries in recent weeks. Wholesale costs for many products have risen as well. “For independent markets operating on narrow margins, even small increases can have a major impact,” Campise said.
Purdue’s Foster, a professor of agricultural economics, cautioned that the April figures reflect supply‑chain conditions that largely predate the Iran war. The diesel that powers fishing boats, tractors and the trucks that ship 83% of U.S. agricultural products has jumped 61% in price from a year ago, according to AAA, but those costs take months to cascade into retail prices. “Most of what we’re seeing now in the food price chain probably predates the conflict,” Foster said. “We’re cautiously waiting to see what the June numbers and the May numbers might show.”
Dalheimer, an assistant professor of macroeconomics and trade, stressed that the story behind the 3.2% headline is “more complicated than just an energy shock.” In July 2025, the previous administration imposed a 17% duty on fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico; consumer tomato prices rose 40% in the 12 months through April. Dry weather across the Western U.S. has been among several forces pushing beef prices 15% higher than a year ago, while drought and other weather disruptions have driven global coffee production down and prices up 18.5%.
Some food costs have bucked the trend. Egg prices dropped 39% over the past year as producers rebuilt flocks decimated by the bird flu outbreak. Butter was 5.8% cheaper, and prices for milk and chicken edged lower.
Fuel prices are hitting parts of the food chain unevenly. The Southern Shrimp Alliance said some boats in the Gulf and South Atlantic haven’t left the dock this spring because they cannot catch enough shrimp to cover the cost of diesel, which now makes up 30% to 50% of a shrimper’s expenses. Because U.S. shrimpers supply only 6% of the shrimp Americans eat, they have little power to raise prices or add fuel surcharges.
Foster noted that the petroleum derivative used to make plastic bottles may have already begun to seep into non‑alcoholic beverage prices, which rose 5% in April. He also warned that if the Iran conflict drags into next year, Americans could face a second wave of food inflation from spiking fertilizer costs, since about 30% of the world’s fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Many U.S. farmers had already secured fertilizer supplies before the war began, but “if the conflict were to last longer, then we might see more coming online as fertilizer prices start to impact longer‑term planting decisions and cropping decisions,” Foster said.