In the run-up to their highly anticipated summit in Beijing, Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump have both signaled that they want U.S.-China ties to remain broadly stable, even as multiple flashpoints—including trade, technology and Taiwan—continue to strain the relationship. Analysts cited in advance of the meeting said major breakthroughs are unlikely, pointing instead to a narrower focus on preserving stability while leaders work through the “what’s next” question that follows each summit.
One of the central items on the agenda is the state of U.S.-China trade, where a widening tariff fight has already shaped corporate planning across sectors. The trade war dates to Trump’s first term and escalated further in April last year, when Trump announced 34% tariffs on all Chinese goods, according to the account of the dispute’s arc. China retaliated with counter tariffs and other measures, including restrictions on rare earth exports, and the exchange drove tariffs as high as 145% during the escalation, creating pressure that the two sides later moved to ease.
That shift came when both countries concluded the tariffs were “sky-high” and called for a trade truce, halting many punitive economic measures. The leaders met in South Korea in October and extended the truce for another year, with China promising to purchase soybeans from American farmers and the U.S. dropping tariffs by more than half. Still, several cautions are being raised about what a summit can realistically deliver: Fudan University professor Zhao Minghao said China and the U.S. could issue a comprehensive trade agreement “this time,” but that would not mean the larger trade “war” is over, and he said such an agreement would come with conditions.
Other observers said the truce did not resolve underlying disputes and that the relationship remains tethered to government rules that can change. Zhao said China now has a new export permit requirement for rare earth exports that it can tighten at any time, and Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society and a former U.S. trade negotiator, said there has been “a lack of the intensive type of engagement” that characterized past summits. Cutler also cited China’s April regulations aimed at identifying and countering foreign measures targeted at Chinese companies, describing an example in which China’s Ministry of Commerce told impacted firms to ignore U.S. sanctions—an indication that the relationship can continue to move in targeted directions even when broad punitive actions are paused. The White House said Sunday it is planning discussions that could include creating a new “Board of Trade” to keep economic talks going.
Beyond tariffs and trade rules, the summit is expected to touch semiconductor and broader technology restrictions that have become a defining feature of U.S.-China competition. The U.S. has restricted exports to China of advanced computer chips and related technology, including the machines used to make chips, starting as early as Trump’s first term, the report said. Nvidia, a California company, has pressed Trump to allow exports, and the report cited Nvidia founder Jensen Huang’s argument that selling the chips would build reliance on American technology for Chinese AI firms.
Zhao said, in written comments shared in advance of the summit, that the growing list of chip restrictions may be pushing China to deepen its self-reliance rather than continue relying on advanced chips from the United States. He characterized China’s approach as having shifted “subtly” toward advancing its domestic chip industry, rather than staying dependent on U.S. supply.
Taiwan is expected to be another major topic and a key driver of risk. Two weeks before the meeting, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said the bilateral relationship has remained generally stable but that Taiwan is the “biggest risk” to ties. China later signaled again that Taiwan would be a top priority for discussion, with few expectations of a resolution to an issue rooted in the 1949 split, in which Beijing claims Taiwan while the island operates as a self-ruled democracy.
Tensions have risen since Taiwan elected Tsai Ing-wen as president in 2016, according to the report, and the Democratic Progressive Party in Taipei has said Taiwan is functionally independent. In parallel, Beijing has broken off communication with Taiwan’s government and has increased military drills in recent years, with warplanes and warships operating closer to the island, the report said. Taiwan’s current president, Lai Ching-te, is also from the DPP, and the report said Beijing has criticized him repeatedly, including depicting him as a “parasite” in propaganda imagery tied to military exercises.
The U.S. faces its own balancing challenge: the report said U.S. law requires it to ensure Taiwan can defend itself, while the U.S. maintains what it calls “strategic ambiguity” about whether it would get involved militarily if China sought to reclaim Taiwan by force. The report also said Trump recently stated he discussed arms sales to Taiwan with Xi, adding to questions about support. Zhao offered one possible framework for mutual reductions, saying China and the U.S. could pursue “reciprocal restraint,” including reducing arms sales in exchange for fewer mainland military exercises aimed at Taiwan.
The war in Iran is also expected to come up as leaders talk about regional instability that has shaken global markets. The report said China has criticized both the United States and Israel over the conflict and, because of close political and economic ties with Iran, some see China as an unofficial mediator that could influence Tehran. So far, Beijing is described as cautious and preferring not to become deeply involved. Henrietta Levin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said she does not think China has “any interest in solving the problems the U.S. has created for itself in the Middle East.”
In recent days, U.S. officials have pressed China to apply more pressure. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged China on Fox News to pressure Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, and the report said he also argued that China’s purchases of Iranian oil fund terrorism. Bessent said, “Let’s see if China — let’s see them step up with some diplomacy and get the Iranians to open the strait,” adding that “Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism, and China has been buying 90% of their energy, so they are funding the largest state sponsor of terrorism.”