The upcoming summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump — whose date has not been publicly announced — is expected to produce a trade deal announcement and a continuation of the fragile truce that has paused the tariff war, according to a preview published Tuesday by The Associated Press. But analysts cautioned that deep divisions over Taiwan, technology, and Iran are unlikely to be resolved at the meeting.
“On both sides there is a consensus that U.S.-China stability is important,” said Henrietta Levin, senior fellow for the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS. “Once you get past the question of stability, the ‘what’s next’ in the relationship gets a little more complicated, and so for that reason, the most likely thing to come out of the meeting is very little.”
Trade: a deal, not a resolution
The trade war, which began in Trump’s first term, escalated dramatically in April 2025 when Trump announced 34% tariffs on all Chinese goods, sparking retaliatory levies and restrictions on rare earth exports. Tariffs reached as high as 145% before both sides called a truce. The two leaders met in South Korea in October and extended the truce for another year. China promised to buy soybeans from American farmers; the U.S. dropped tariffs by more than half.
“China’s strategy was to promote stability by fighting back,” said Zhao Minghao, an international relations professor at Fudan University. “Both sides could very well issue a comprehensive trade agreement this time. But this doesn’t mean the war is over, and the agreement will have conditions.”
Still, the truce left larger conflicts untouched. China now requires export permits for rare earths and in April issued new regulations empowering ministries to tell companies to ignore U.S. sanctions.
Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society and a former U.S. trade negotiator, noted a lack of the intensive pre-summit engagement seen in previous meetings. “It’s a fragile truce,” she said.
The White House said Sunday the two sides plan to discuss creating a new “Board of Trade” to maintain economic dialogue.
Technology: chips and self-reliance
U.S. export restrictions on advanced computer chips and chip-making equipment, begun in Trump’s first term, remain a sore point. Nvidia founder Jensen Huang has pressed the Trump administration to allow sales of his company’s chips to China, arguing it would build reliance on American technology.
But Zhao said China’s attitude has shifted: “China seems more focused on advancing its domestic chip industry rather than continuing to rely on advanced chips from the United States.”
Taiwan: the ‘biggest risk’
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a call two weeks before the summit that Taiwan remains the “biggest risk” to bilateral ties. China again signaled Thursday that the island would be its top priority.
China claims Taiwan as its territory; the island is a