Roughly 76,000 fewer students enrolled in Texas public schools this academic year — the first non-pandemic enrollment decline in nearly four decades — with Hispanic students accounting for 81 percent of the loss, according to a report the policy research group Texas 2036 released Monday. The findings were presented just ahead of a Texas House education committee hearing that focused on enrollment trends and the stability of the state’s school funding system.
The enrollment drop signals a structural shift that Texas policymakers and school districts will need to plan for, analysts said, as falling birth rates, competition from private and charter schools, and a new state voucher program reshape demand for public education. The state funds public schools based on attendance; some districts have already cut programs and shuttered campuses, despite a nearly $8.5 billion increase in public education funding approved last year.
Texas 2036 analyzed the state enrollment data and projected that about 100,000 fewer students would attend public schools by the end of the decade. Yet some other projections show the number growing by nearly half a million over the same period, underscoring the uncertainty facing planners.
Carlo Castillo, a senior research analyst at Texas 2036, said in a statement: “What stands out in the data is that public school enrollment is falling even as Texas continues to grow. In many parts of the state, population gains are no longer translating into public school enrollment growth. That points to a broader structural shift policymakers and district leaders will need to plan for.”
At the House hearing, Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath told lawmakers, “We cannot tell you the precise cause of this.” Bob Templeton, a researcher who studies Texas’ education demographics, testified that enrollment could drop by roughly 500,000 in the next four to five years. “This is not another blip or a one-off,” Templeton said. “This is an inflection point.”
The enrollment decline hit urban areas, the Panhandle, and southern border districts disproportionately, the Texas 2036 report found. Hispanic enrollment fell by 2.1 percent — a drop of 61,781 students — which the group called “the single largest year-over-year reversal” among the four major racial and ethnic groups. Texas educates about 5.5 million public school students, 53 percent of whom are Hispanic.
Mary Lynn Pruneda, director of education and workforce policy for Texas 2036, said the group could not determine to what extent increased immigration enforcement contributed to the enrollment loss. But Rep. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin Democrat running for governor, told reporters Monday, “I wouldn’t be surprised if it is contributing to it.”
Esmeralda Alday, senior director of programs and impact at ImmSchools, a national nonprofit that supports immigrant students in Texas, said she hears directly from families questioning whether to send their children to school amid heightened immigration officer activity. Some parents considered pulling their kids from bilingual education programs or turning to virtual schools out of fear of being targeted, she said.
“I’ve heard it directly from the teachers, from principals, saying, ‘Hey, these kids just disappeared. Can you help us locate them or help us figure out what happened to them or to their parents?’” Alday said. “So, yes. It’s fear.”