Yoweri Museveni took the oath of office on Tuesday in Kampala, cheered by thousands at a ceremony produced by his son — army chief Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba — whose orchestration of the event broadcast the generational transfer already underway inside Uganda’s ruling apparatus.
Russian-made Sukhoi fighters screamed over the Kololo ceremonial grounds as the 81-year-old president urged Ugandans to build wealth and gave his trademark admonition: “No more excuses.” But the pageantry, according to the Associated Press, served an additional purpose: cementing the stature of Kainerugaba, who commanded the military parade and is widely seen as the president’s chosen heir.
The de facto transition
Kainerugaba, 52, joined the army in the late 1990s and rose through the ranks in a trajectory critics long dubbed the “Muhoozi Project” — an alleged plan to prepare him for the presidency. Both father and son denied the scheme for years, but in the last two years that denial has evaporated as Kainerugaba accumulated command over the presidential guard and the elite special forces.
“While people are waiting for the legal transition from Museveni, the de facto transition has already happened,” Angelo Izama, an analyst who runs the Uganda-based Fanaka Kwawote think tank, told the AP. “Kainerugaba, more than the president, is the final voice on defense and security matters.”
Andrew Mwenda, a close ally of Kainerugaba, spelled out the dynamic in a column last month in The Independent online newspaper: “Many Ugandans close to power have learned this lesson. That the president is old and exhausted, both intellectually and physically. He has a limited ability to monitor many things across a large spectrum of sectors.”
Parliamentary Speaker Anita Among went further. At a birthday gathering for the general, she promised lawmakers would clear every obstacle. “For the sake of MK, just assure MK that we will do whatever it takes,” she said, using Kainerugaba’s initials. “In the 11th parliament, the opposition got swallowed. In the 12th parliament, it is going to be walloped.”
Two routes to power
Kainerugaba’s path is narrow. An electoral victory against popular opposition figure Bobi Wine — a singer-turned-politician who rejects the results of the January election that returned Museveni — is considered a hurdle too high by many observers. Instead, AP reports, the general could either orchestrate an unconstitutional military takeover or benefit from a constitutional amendment that allows the ruling party’s overwhelming parliamentary majority to select Museveni’s successor.
Kainerugaba has declared his mission “unstoppable.” Associates describe him as a dedicated officer who avoids ostentation and attended military schools in the United States and Britain. But his style is harsher than his father’s. He has ordered the arrest of multiple generals on corruption allegations, including former friends, and his confrontational online posts routinely rattle Ugandan politics.
Forty years and counting
Museveni first seized power in 1986 as the leader of a guerrilla force promising democratization after years of civil war. At the time he said Africa’s problem was leaders who overstayed their welcome. Later, after term limits and age caps were erased, he recast that criticism to apply only to leaders who stayed without an electoral mandate.
He is credited by Western allies with delivering relative stability, but critics see a deepening authoritarian streak. The AP noted that lawmakers recently passed the Anti-“Agent of a Foreigner” Bill, which bars any organization classified as an “agent of a foreigner” from receiving external grants exceeding about $110,000 in a year without the interior minister’s permission. Wine’s National Unity Platform called the legislation “unconstitutional, irrelevant and brought in bad faith to further persecute those with divergent views.”
For millions of Ugandans who have known no other president, Museveni’s departure is finally imaginable. What remains unknowable, AP reported, is whether the transition will be orderly — or whether the military, under the command of the president’s son, will write the next chapter directly.