Keir Starmer is facing a new challenge to his grip on the British prime ministership after his Labour Party suffered a resounding defeat in local elections last week, prompting dozens of lawmakers from his own party to call on him to step down. Starmer has said he wants to get on with governing, but the question of whether he can stay in office is increasingly tied to decisions inside his government and his party.
The pressure has intensified since Tuesday, when several junior ministers quit the government and urged the prime minister to resign, drawing comparisons to the moment in 2022 when Boris Johnson faced an exodus of ministers and resigned as Conservative leader. Starmer also made a pledge Monday about how he would respond to demands from within Labour and among the electorate, according to the account provided by the Associated Press.
Britain’s next national election does not have to be held until 2029. Under the country’s political system, parties can change leaders midterm without calling a general election, meaning Starmer’s fate could turn on whether Labour decides to replace him through its own succession mechanisms or whether another parliamentary route gains traction.
The simplest path for Labour to alter the premiership would be for Starmer to announce his intention to resign, which would trigger a Labour leadership election. If he left office immediately, the Cabinet and Labour’s governing body would likely pick an interim leader to serve as prime minister, probably someone not expected to run for the Labour leadership itself, with Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy identified as a possible fit.
Under Labour rules, candidates need the backing of a fifth—81—of the party’s House of Commons lawmakers to get on the ballot. Around 80 members have said they want Starmer to announce a timetable for his departure, but as of the report there were no candidates yet willing to challenge him for leadership.
If a leadership contest were triggered, candidates who met the initial threshold would then need the support of 5% of local constituency parties, or at least three affiliated party organizations, such as trade unions and cooperative societies. The eligible party members and affiliates would then vote using an electoral system that ranks candidates, with the winner determined as the first to secure more than 50% of the vote. After that, King Charles III would invite the winner to become prime minister and form a government.
If Starmer does not resign, his removal could come through a more drawn-out internal contest or through a parliamentary confrontation. In the account of how this could unfold, Labour could face a leadership challenge from one or more lawmakers, while the Conservatives could also attempt to force a vote by tabling a no-confidence motion. The story notes that with Labour’s large majority in Parliament, a Conservative no-confidence effort is unlikely.
One effort to spark a leadership bid already surfaced from inside Labour’s parliamentary ranks. Backbencher Catherine West said Sunday that she would mount a leadership bid if the Cabinet did not remove Starmer by Monday, according to the report; she later acknowledged she did not have anywhere near the support required to trigger a contest and abandoned the plan on Monday. That episode was described as a move that would effectively pressure more high-profile contenders to step forward.
The report also set Labour against the wider UK history of prime ministers being replaced without general elections. It points to Conservative-era examples including Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and Boris Johnson in 2022, while also saying Labour has not built a similar “muscle memory,” with no Labour prime minister previously dislodged during service. It does cite Tony Blair’s 2007 decision to announce a plan to resign after a series of low-level resignations.
Potential leadership challengers named in the account include Health Secretary Wes Streeting and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, though the report says an investigation into Rayner’s tax affairs is ongoing after she resigned last year following an acknowledgment that she did not pay enough tax on a house purchase. Another figure described as having leadership ambitions is Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, but it adds that Burnham is not eligible to stand at present because he is not in Parliament.
The report outlines a possible route for Burnham to become eligible if Starmer signals he intends to step down—for example, at Labour’s annual conference in September—by finding a way for Burnham to return to the House of Commons. It describes a scenario in which a Labour lawmaker in a relatively safe seat would quit, opening up another chance for Burnham through a special parliamentary election. Still, it notes that winning that special election would be another test, and suggests recent local election results offer an uncertain guide for how such a bid could succeed.