Trump’s China talks next week could shape Jimmy Lai’s prison fate

Trump’s next Beijing meeting puts spotlight on Jimmy Lai’s case

Pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai’s fate is again tied to U.S.-China diplomacy ahead of President Donald Trump’s expected trip to Beijing for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week, his family said, as they press for Lai’s release after he was sentenced to 20 years under Hong Kong’s national security law.

Lai’s son Sebastien Lai said the family is hopeful Trump can help secure his father’s freedom as Trump prepares to discuss trade, the Iran war and Taiwan with Xi, while also indicating he plans to raise Lai with China’s leader. Sebastien Lai said there are fewer moving parts in the Lai case than in the other geopolitical issues slated for the summit.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Sebastien Lai said he fears the clock is ticking for his 78-year-old father, who has remained in custody for more than five years. Lai’s family also argues that time in prison poses the risk of serious health consequences, and his son said he believes his father will die in prison if he is not freed.

Trump has publicly expressed sympathy for Lai, the AP reported, saying in December after Lai was found guilty that he “feel[s] so badly.” The AP reported that Trump had raised Lai’s case during his October meeting with Xi, and that Lai’s plight has remained a point of discussion as the two countries’ officials negotiate other priorities.

Rights advocates say the U.S. has achieved some prisoner releases through diplomacy even amid escalating tensions, including the 2024 release of U.S. pastor David Lin and the exchange of several other prisoners under a diplomatic agreement that year. But they also warn that political prisoners who have confronted Beijing over human-rights issues can become harder to release as China’s policies under Xi Jinping emphasize sovereignty and resistance to foreign interference.

Mark Clifford, president of the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation, said people briefed on the October meeting told him that Xi and his staff “noted” Trump’s remarks without pushing back aggressively, which Clifford said suggested room for talks. Clifford also told AP that he was informed Trump had instructed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to raise Lai’s release in last June’s trade talks with China, and that Bessent again mentioned it in a recent meeting with Chinese representatives that Clifford said acknowledged the issue without much comment; the Treasury Department did not respond to a request for comment.

In parallel, U.S. lawmakers have sought to raise pressure in the run-up to the summit, with the AP reporting that more than 100 U.S. lawmakers sent a bipartisan letter to the White House urging Trump to pursue Lai’s release at the upcoming meeting with Xi.

Even if the U.S. presses, observers said the outcome remains uncertain because of how hard Beijing has signaled it sees the case. In March, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun called Lai the “mastermind” behind the 2019 riots, according to the AP, and on Thursday the spokesperson’s office did not directly answer whether China would consider releasing him, saying Hong Kong issues are internal affairs and foreign interference is not allowed.

The Hong Kong government has also said the case has nothing to do with press freedom, according to the AP, stating that Lai was convicted after an open and fair trial and that the government will ensure laws are observed and strictly enforced. The AP reported that the White House did not respond to questions about how vigorously Trump would press for Lai’s release.

Lai has British citizenship, and the AP reported that he decided not to appeal his conviction and sentence. The government, which Lai’s family disputes, is seeking to confiscate his assets on national security grounds, and Sebastien Lai said the move is another example of his father “still being attacked.”

A key question for advocates is how much leverage Washington has with Beijing on a case tied to Hong Kong’s security crackdown. John Kamm of the Dui Hua Foundation said China has previously made concessions when it wanted something, such as hosting the Olympics, but he also said U.S. attention can make a difference in winning releases. Kamm said he does not know of anyone in the current U.S. administration who cares about political prisoners in China, while he noted an exception could be Secretary of State Marco Rubio but said Rubio’s focus is on other issues.

Kamm said Trump is prioritizing trade, investment and the Iran war, and he said China could agree to release Lai if the U.S. makes concessions on Beijing’s other priorities. Another view, offered by Georgetown Center for Asian Law executive director Thomas Kellogg, was that both sides have incentives to strike a deal, because releasing Lai could let China signal it is ready to move on after nearly six years since the security law was imposed and could give the Trump administration a diplomatic win after what he described as a difficult period.

Kellogg said winning Lai’s release would help the administration earn praise even from its critics. But Wilson Chan, co-founder of the Pagoda Institute, told AP that a diplomatic solution is unlikely, arguing Beijing may see Lai as an influential figure who still poses national security threats if the international community keeps raising his case—and that if it does not, Beijing may feel less pressure to act.

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