Trump’s return to the White House has brought Taiwan to the forefront of U.S.-China talks this week, as President Donald Trump signaled that China may press him to limit U.S. arms support for the island even as U.S. officials and Taiwanese leaders argue that policy remains stable.
Trump told reporters on Monday that he expected Xi Jinping to ask him to hold back on arming Taiwan. “I’m going to have that discussion with President Xi,” Trump said, adding that Xi would like the U.S. not to provide weapons to Taiwan and that he would discuss it. The comments have intensified speculation in Beijing, Taipei and Washington about whether Trump could soften the long-standing U.S. posture toward Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province.
The backdrop includes Trump’s past actions and rhetoric about Taiwan-linked issues. In December, Trump authorized an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan—described by the Associated Press as the largest weapons sale ever to the island—but has not yet moved forward with delivery and has not only discussed the sale with Xi, according to the report, but has also complained that Taiwan “stole” America’s semiconductor business while urging Taiwan to pay for protection.
At the same time, Trump has pressured Taipei through trade leverage, including threats of hefty tariffs, to agree to large investments in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing and to purchase billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. liquefied natural gas and crude oil. Analysts and officials say those economic demands add a potential bargaining layer to any Taiwan-focused discussion between Trump and Xi.
The Chinese side has also made clear it intends to keep Taiwan near the center of the summit agenda. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi raised Taiwan in a call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio to prepare for the trip, according to a statement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, and urged the United States to “make the right choices” to safeguard “stability” between the two countries.
Rubio, speaking to reporters in Rome on Friday, rejected the idea of any shift. “We don’t want to see any forced or compelled change in the situation,” he said, adding that it “would be destabilizing to the world.” Rubio also said Taiwan would not be “a feature of our trip,” but that it “will certainly be an item that’s discussed.”
Taiwan’s concerns reflect that tension. National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen told reporters that (China) “may attempt some maneuvering during the talks,” but that the U.S. had repeatedly reiterated through public and private channels that its policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged. Taiwanese lawmakers, meanwhile, have signaled they plan to continue expanding defense capabilities: on Friday, lawmakers broke months of gridlock to approve $25 billion in arms purchases, after a $40 billion proposal from President Lai Ching-te the previous year was only partially funded in the final approval.
U.S. officials have pointed to additional Taiwan military sales already approved in Trump’s second term, including a separate decision in November for $330 million in aircraft parts, to argue that Washington is not stepping back. The report said White House officials underscored that Trump has approved more in military sales for Taiwan in his first year than the roughly $8.4 billion Democratic President Joe Biden approved over his four years in office.
Several experts said the central question for Beijing is how aggressively Xi will push Trump’s flexibility—particularly whether the talks could produce curbs on U.S. arms sales or informal limits on U.S. officials’ visits. China’s longstanding position is that Taiwan should be annexed by force if necessary, and it has barred countries with diplomatic relations from having formal ties with Taipei. Under the U.S. approach, Washington has historically acknowledged Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China while maintaining informal support for Taiwan and providing arms.
Patricia Kim of the Brookings Institution said even without dramatic declaratory-policy changes, there remains risk in a leader’s tone and wording. “Even if we don’t see something as dramatic as a formal shift in declaratory policy, this time around, there is always a risk that President Trump may make an off-the-cuff remark given he’s not necessarily somebody who appreciates the nuances of longstanding policy language,” she said. Another factor observers track is whether disputes elsewhere in U.S. regional diplomacy could spill over into how Taiwan is treated during the summit.
The stakes for Taiwan also include the island’s role in semiconductors, which the report describes as central to the advanced-technology competition between the United States and China. Lev Nachman of National Taiwan University said the U.S. “relies on” Taiwan’s robust semiconductor sector and that Trump at least recognizes Taiwan’s role in U.S. economic growth. Edgard Kagan, a former senior State Department official on East Asia policy, said Trump’s approach to leveraging relationships and decisions suggests Taiwan’s interests are unlikely to be traded away as “fungible” issues.
In the near term, observers said the summit’s outcome is likely to be judged by what Trump and Xi publicly say about Taiwan afterward. Trump reiterated on Monday that he was confident Xi would not take military action against Taiwan under his watch, while Nachman said the best-case scenario Taiwan could hope for is that it is not discussed publicly or is discussed only minimally.