The May 19 primary ballot in Oregon carries a question with consequences that extend well beyond road maintenance: whether to repeal the gas-tax increase and associated fees the Democratic-controlled Legislature passed last fall. The referendum arrives as the price of gasoline has become a flashpoint in American pocketbook politics, with the Iran war’s effect on oil markets combining with an affordability crisis that Democrats nationally are trying to address — and that Republicans in Oregon are using to undercut the party in power.
The legislation, signed by Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek, raised the state gas tax from 40 cents to 46 cents per gallon. That would tie Oregon with Maryland for the eighth-highest gas tax when other state taxes and fees are included, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The package also boosted a payroll tax dedicated to transit projects and raised vehicle registration and title fees. Lawmakers argued the revenue was needed to pay for road paving, snow plowing, and other transportation services at a moment when projections show gas-tax collections declining as more drivers switch to electric, hybrid, and fuel-efficient vehicles.
Kotek recently acknowledged the difficult timing. “Certainly, the conversation at the ballot this year is a tough sell right now, because I think everyone is feeling a pinch on their household budgets,” she told reporters. But she and other Democrats pointed to President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran as the root cause of the gas-price spike and suggested the federal government consider reducing the 18-cent federal gas tax if it wants to deliver pump relief to Americans.
Voters feel the weight
The price pressure is tangible at the pump. Gasoline nationally topped $4.50 a gallon on Friday, and Oregon drivers are paying roughly 80 cents more per gallon than that average.
Jeanine Holly, filling her tank at a Portland station, called the timing punishing. “It is a hell of a time to be raising gas taxes on people,” she said.
Michael Burch, a 76-year-old retiree, said he used to pay $70 to fill three-quarters of his pickup’s tank; now he pays $80 for just over half a tank. “I’m sick and tired of taxes,” he said. “Gas is certainly dampening the spirits and the coffers of folks that aren’t as well off.”
Hannah Coe, a 30-year-old student, was undecided. “I think I would be in favor of it if it was going to go to the things that it was saying it was going to go to, such as fixing our roads,” she said, before voicing the skeptical counter: “I also kind of feel like that’s just a grab at trying to get more money from the people who live here.”
Not every voter sees the tax as a simple burden. Kurt Borneman, 68, said he would support the increase even though it now costs him at least $10 more to fill his tank. “I realize that money’s tight and roads need to be improved,” he said. “I want less government, but I also want nice roads.”
The Republican strategy
Republicans moved quickly after the tax package was signed. They needed 78,000 voter signatures to place a repeal on the ballot; they submitted 250,000. “That is a remarkable number,” said Republican strategist Rebecca Tweed.
The party has woven the gas-tax question into a broader affordability argument, seeking to turn one of Democrats’ own favored themes — cost-of-living anxiety — against the majority party in Salem. “Do Oregonians want to pay more? The answer is no,” said GOP state Sen. Bruce Starr, who helped lead the referendum campaign. “Everything they’re looking at is expensive.”
The framing fight Democrats say they lost
Democratic state Rep. Paul Evans offered a candid assessment of his party’s failure to shape the public conversation before the referendum qualified. “When anything is reduced to, ‘Do you want a tax or not?’ Most people are going to say no,” he said. “The messaging got away from us, and it became focused upon the price instead of the value.”
So far there has been no organized campaign from Democrats and their allies to defend the tax increase at the ballot box. The referendum lands in a national climate where Democrats are trying to answer the pocketbook anxieties that helped propel Trump to victory in 2024 — some of their own candidates have proposed tax cuts — while simultaneously defending a state-level tax increase voters are experiencing in real time at the gas station.
Chris Koski, a professor of political science and environmental studies at Portland’s Reed College, summarized the bind: “It’s difficult to imagine a worse situation for a gas tax increase than right now in American politics.”
The outcome of the May vote will signal how deeply fuel prices have reshaped voters’ willingness to accept tax increases for public infrastructure, and may shape Democratic messaging in races across the country as the midterm campaign accelerates.