Shippers whipsawed by changing stances as vessels remain stuck in Hormuz

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With hundreds of vessels still stuck in the Persian Gulf and costs piling up, shipping companies are being forced to make fast, costly adjustments as they wait to see how and when the Strait of Hormuz might reopen more than two months into the Iran war. On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced “Project Freedom,” an approach meant to help U.S. guidance steer ships to exit the strait, but two ships completed the transit before Trump abruptly paused the effort by Tuesday to allow time for a deal to end the war.

Even as diplomatic moves continue, the risks for ships and crews have not faded, according to industry and maritime legal experts cited in the report. Sean Pribyl, a maritime attorney at Holland & Knight in Washington, D.C., said shippers still face “risk and safety” decisions and that the industry does not appear to be near “returning to a free flow of traffic and navigation through the strait.”

A major driver of the slowdown has been the vetting process imposed for passage through the waterway. Research cited by the Associated Press from Lloyd’s List Intelligence said 100 to 135 vessels passed through the strait daily before the Iran war, but traffic has slowed to a trickle as Iran demanded ships go through a review run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to receive safe passage. The process requires ships to follow a route near Iran’s coast, submit information on crew and cargo, and, in some cases, pay a fee.

Shippers say the vetting process creates a separate set of problems, because paying the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to receive safe passage can expose ships to U.S. and EU sanctions. The sanctions have designated the IRGC a terrorist organization, while the report also noted that U.S. Navy forces are blockading Iran’s ports and enforcing the blockade outside the strait in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

The blockade and the routing constraints have left goods and crews stranded. The Associated Press report said goods include oil and oil products such as fertilizer, and that Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday there were more than 1,550 vessels with about 22,500 mariners inside the Persian Gulf.

Shipping firms say the effect is visible in higher insurance and fuel costs and in reduced capacity. The report said insurance costs for vessels in the region have jumped during the conflict, moving from less than 1% of the value of goods on a ship to a range of 3% to 10%, and that even with war-risk coverage, many shippers have judged the crossing too unsafe.

CMA CGM Group, a French shipping company, said Wednesday that a cargo container ship it operates was damaged when it came under attack while attempting to transit the strait. Other operators have pointed to continued concerns about Iranian speedboats and drones, which they say keeps the waterway too dangerous for routine shipping.

Financial impacts are already emerging among major carriers. Hapag-Lloyd AG, described as one of the world’s largest container shipping companies, said the Hormuz situation was costing it $60 million a week, with particular pressure coming from rising fuel and insurance prices. The company said it had suspended some transport services and sought alternate routes to safe harbors or over land, while warning that those options were limited in capacity and could not fully replace regular maritime routes through the region.

Maersk said its U.S.-flagged Alliance Fairfax vehicle carrier exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, “accompanied by U.S. military assets,” and that the transit was completed without incident with all crew members safe and unharmed.

Industry leaders also warned that even if the ceasefire holds, shipping would not immediately return to pre-war patterns. Kaho Yu, head of energy and resources at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said energy markets are unlikely to move back quickly to “precrisis assumptions,” even amid diplomatic engagement, and that refiners, shippers and commodity traders will remain cautious until there is clearer evidence that disruptions to Hormuz will not re-escalate.

Yu added that a Wednesday meeting between Iranian and Chinese diplomats reflected de-escalation, but said “Hormuz remains the real metric” that observers will watch. He said tanker traffic and energy flows over coming weeks and months are likely to matter more than diplomatic language when assessing whether Beijing can translate influence with Tehran into practical stability.

Razat Gaurav, CEO of Kinaxis, also said shipping would not “snap back overnight” if conditions improve and ships begin transiting the Strait of Hormuz again. He said carriers, insurers and shippers need confidence that stability will hold before capacity and routes normalize, noting that air cargo may recover faster but ocean shipping typically takes weeks or months because of longer lead times and contractual constraints, with some backlogs clearing more quickly than others. He said liquid natural gas and sulfur shipments—categories where the Middle East is a major source—are likely to move more quickly as demand catches up, but that most shippers would likely remain cautious until stability proves durable.