DETROIT — Michigan Republicans entered 2026 eyeing a takeover of the state’s top offices, but a cascade of unfavorable developments — from a resounding special-election defeat to surging gas prices and an open feud inside the party’s gubernatorial primary — has darkened the GOP’s outlook in one of the nation’s premier swing states.
On Tuesday, a Democratic candidate won a special state Senate election by almost 20 percentage points in a district that Kamala Harris carried by less than a single point in the 2024 presidential race. The victory expanded the margin that the prior Democratic officeholder achieved in 2022 by more than threefold. Michigan pollster Richard Czuba said the result shows “Democrats and independent voters are working in tandem to send a message to the Trump administration.”
The political blow landed as Michigan households felt acute economic pain. Average gasoline prices in the state reached roughly $4.80 per gallon, the 10th-highest in the U.S., according to AAA, after jumping more than 80 cents in a single week. The spike has been fueled by conflict in Iran and persistent tariff volatility that has unnerved the auto industry, the backbone of the state’s economy.
“The more stability there is in the environment, the easier it is for me to make decisions to grow and expand,” said John Lytle, president of manufacturer Promess Inc., whose business outside Detroit has been strained by the uncertain trade terrain. “That’s probably been the biggest impact it’s had on us.”
Voter frustration is running deep. Jared Kaufman, a 26-year-old teacher who voted for Democrat Chedrick Green in Tuesday’s election, said he doesn’t make much money and sees the sacrifices being made “for something that is nowhere near us” as unnecessary. National polling data bear that out: Trump’s approval on the economy plunged among Republicans from 74% in March to 62% in April, while barely 2 in 10 independents approved of his handling of the cost of living, according to AP-NORC surveys.
“If they don’t get Iran figured out pretty quick, we’re screwed,” said Jason Roe, a strategist and former executive director of the Michigan GOP.
While the policy environment grows more hostile, Republican hopes at the top of the ticket are also being undermined by disarray in the primary for governor. With Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer term-limited, the race was once seen as the party’s best pickup chance. But frustration with the campaign of frontrunner Rep. John James has spilled into public view. After James skipped a GOP debate in a key swing county in April, Chris Long, a member of the Michigan GOP leadership, publicly called for him to drop out, warning that James would “almost certainly lose the general election.”
A late entry by millionaire businessman Perry Johnson has complicated things further. Johnson, who ran long-shot bids for governor in 2022 and president in 2024, has attacked James aggressively and announced a $10 million television ad buy in February. James spokesperson Hannah Osantowske dismissed the infighting as “sore losers griping,” while emphasizing that James remains the frontrunner and “the only Republican beating both Democrats in November.”
The state’s open U.S. Senate seat presents a similar challenge. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin by fewer than 20,000 votes in 2024, is running again, while three prominent Democrats compete in a crowded primary. No Republican has won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC for Senate Republicans, has already reserved $45 million in advertising, but Czuba cautioned that an influx of outside cash might further nationalize the contest at a time when Trump’s numbers in the state are deeply underwater.
“If undecided voters disproportionately view Donald Trump negatively,” Czuba said, “I’m not sure what the path is for Mike Rogers.”
AP journalist Mike Householder in Bay City, Michigan, contributed to this report.