Kenya’s political debate has taken on a new vocabulary as leaders trade accusations of “goonism” while warning that political violence could escalate ahead of elections next year, according to reporting carried by the Associated Press. The term has been used by national figures to refer to gangs that intimidate people whose political activities opponents oppose, and it has quickly become a weapon in disputes over who is behind the violence.

At times, the rhetoric has made the conflict sound as if “goonism” is “up against goonism,” with supporters and opponents both arguing that the violence must be stopped. Supporters of President William Ruto, who is seeking a second term in elections next year, use the phrase to describe the violence they say authorities will not tolerate. Opposition figures, in turn, have used the same term to condemn what they describe as Ruto’s aggressive and underhanded campaign tactics.

Religious figures have also stepped into the argument, reflecting doubts among some Kenyans about whether Ruto has held to Christian values he promoted before taking office in 2022. Many supporters of Ruto had previously viewed him as a pious politician, but the AP report says critics and some former supporters argue he changed after becoming president. In a sermon at a Sunday service in the coastal city of Mombasa, preacher Wilfred Lai lamented what had befallen Kenya and warned followers against seeking rule “by that kind of thing,” saying, “Goons, goons, goons,” and then: “Everyone who wants to rule this country by that kind of thing, I speak as a prophet of God: You shall fall.” Lai added: “You can’t use goons and you are telling us that you are taking us into a better place. You are a liar and the truth is not in you.” The report says Lai did not mention Ruto by name, but many Kenyans suspected the president was the subject of the sermon, parts of which were shared online.

The report describes how Lai and other evangelical preachers had embraced Ruto when he was vice president and seeking to replace President Uhuru Kenyatta, whose backing he did not have. It also says some people pointed to changes after Ruto took office, including criticism that he removed a chapel within the statehouse compound to be replaced by a modern facility, and objections to income tax measures introduced months after his inauguration. In the AP account, large protests in Nairobi—triggered in part by tax proposals—forced authorities to withdraw some of the proposals, but anger persisted and further protests followed, including those sparked by the death in police custody of a blogger.

Ruto’s allies and opponents have also traded direct threats and counter-accusations about who is using gangs in political contests. After protesters stormed the parliamentary building in 2024, the AP report says Ruto vowed that such an event would not happen again, and it also recounts a separate televised appeal in which he urged police to “break” the limbs of protesters and said he was going nowhere. In that address, Ruto was quoted as saying, “If we go this route, we will not have a country,” and “The country belongs to all of us. And if there’s no country for William Ruto, there’s no country for you.” Some people, the report says, read the comments as a veiled threat, and opposition figures have suspected that gangs appearing at opposition events are sponsored by the state.

Opposition leader Kalonzo Musyoka, speaking to a local broadcaster, said, “We must say no, collectively, to the new specter, the new norm, of goonism,” and added, “The goons are very well-known. So for anybody to pretend that it is the work of united opposition, he really must be ashamed, even before God, that this is state-sponsored.” In parallel, the report depicts political violence as practical and escalating—men armed with machetes and guns can break up rallies or prevent them from starting—while opposition figures accuse authorities of fomenting violence.

The government has taken its own line. The AP report says Interior Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen recently warned goons that “since the politician won’t be with you when you commit the crime, we’ll come for you.” Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, described as an ally of Ruto, said the “culture of goonism has no place in a democratic society.” The report also points to a specific incident in which an opposition lawmaker from western Kenya, Sen. Godfrey Osotsi, was manhandled in a restaurant by men questioning his political views; Osotsi’s injuries required hospitalization, and the attack sparked protests in his home area that were condemned by religious leaders.

Ruto has also continued seeking influence with church leaders as their role spreads across social networks, the AP report says. His choice of where to pray may be unpredictable, and sometimes Methodist and Pentecostal leaders gather near him at the statehouse. Other religious leaders, however, have become critical, with the AP report describing insults exchanged between Ruto and his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua, who was impeached and is now a leader of the Wantam movement aimed at making Ruto a one-term president.

In March, the AP report says, after Gachagua called Ruto a thief who would steal a funeral home, Ruto called Gachagua a “cold-blooded pig” who stole from his brother. Days later, Archbishop Maurice Muhatia of the local conference of Catholic primates rebuked both men at a bishops’ gathering, saying, “Disagreement is OK, but insulting each other in public is a disgrace,” and “Give us a break.”

Beyond the rhetoric, the AP report says there is a broader fear among some Kenyans that the election could become “very bloody.” The report notes that Kenya’s elections have often been fractious and recalls the 2007 election’s violence involving a gang known as Mungiki. It also includes commentary from Christine Mungai, an independent writer based in Nairobi, who said Kenya’s current president has taken on a role in what she described as “a product of gangster theology,” adding that Ruto has mastered “how to perform public piety” while simultaneously working “to make life harder for everyone.” Development scholar Karuti Kanyinga, visiting professor at the Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study in South Africa, warned that if political players do not tone down their rhetoric “the election is going to be very bloody,” and said, “Everyone will have their own protection gangs.”

The AP report says it is not yet clear who Ruto’s main election opponent will be, adding that it could be Musyoka or Fred Matiang’i, a former cabinet secretary for the interior. It also says that while Gachagua is likely ineligible to seek the presidency after his impeachment, his support could still matter for the opposition.