As President Donald Trump and administration officials argue that their approach to prescription drug prices will ease costs for Americans, White House economists estimated the plan’s potential impact at hundreds of billions of dollars. In an analysis obtained by The Associated Press, economists said Trump’s deals with pharmaceutical companies to reduce some U.S. drug prices to the levels those companies charge in other countries could save $529 billion over the next 10 years, an estimate tied to the administration’s “most favored nation” policy framework.
The analysis also projected savings to public programs, estimating that federal and state governments could save a combined $64.3 billion on Medicaid over the decade as a result of the policy, according to the report described by AP. The administration has presented the deals as transformative and has argued that Congress should codify the approach into law.
Administration officials said the analysis—prepared for the White House Council of Economic Advisers—was part of a political case Trump is making with voters ahead of November’s midterm elections for control of the House and Senate. AP reported that Democratic lawmakers have been doubtful about the administration’s savings claims, and that the new numbers are likely to trigger further questions about the underlying data.
In a Friday rally in Florida, Trump told a crowd of seniors, “Now you have the lowest drug prices anywhere in the world,” saying “that alone should win us the midterms,” according to AP. The White House economists’ projections are framed as a way to address affordability concerns by targeting the gap between U.S. drug prices and those charged in other affluent nations.
Still, AP reported that few of the details of the agreements between the administration and 17 leading pharmaceutical companies have been made public, limiting outside verification of the savings projections. The analysis said it aimed to estimate prospective savings as more medications come onto the market and fall under Trump’s framework, and AP reported that one model in the report projected possible savings of $733 billion over a decade.
Democratic lawmakers pressed for more transparency in Congress. Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden, a Democrat from Oregon, and 17 Senate Democrats in April proposed legislation that would require the administration to disclose the terms of the agreements signed with pharmaceutical companies. Wyden said at the time, “If these deals are so great, why is the Trump administration afraid of showing them to the public?” and AP said Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stated the administration would share details that do not include proprietary information or trade secrets.
The White House said it has not released the text of the agreements because they include highly sensitive data that could move financial markets, according to AP. That position sets up a continuing dispute over whether the administration’s savings case can be independently checked against the terms of the deals it has negotiated.
AP also described how the administration’s analysis rests on assumptions about pricing changes outside the United States. The analysis was premised on the idea that foreign countries would also pay more for prescription drugs under the policy, which the White House said would diversify drugmakers’ revenue streams and preserve innovation capacity for new treatments. Outside economists, AP reported, cautioned that any savings might not flow directly to patients, many of whom already pay discounted prices through insurance.
The debate also intersects with the wider fiscal and economic picture. The administration’s projections arrive as cost-of-living concerns remain central to voter anxiety, and AP noted higher energy prices tied to the Iran war. In October 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that a plan similar to what Trump adopted could reduce prescription drug prices by more than 5%, while also saying the decrease “would probably diminish over time as manufacturers adjusted to the new policy by altering prices or distribution of drugs in other countries,” according to AP.
Democrats have argued that savings, even if they occur, could be offset by higher costs for prescription drugs not covered by the “most favored nation” framework. They have also raised concerns about pharmaceutical company profits in recent months. In April, staff working for Sen. Bernie Sanders released an analysis of 15 companies that agreed to the plan and found that their combined profits jumped 66% over the past year to $177 billion, AP reported, while noting that Sanders’ report said tax cuts Trump signed last year “exempted or delayed many of the most expensive drugs” from price negotiations with Medicare.
The administration countered that the Sanders critique is flawed, according to AP, saying it is based on list prices rather than the actual prices patients pay. The conflicting claims about savings, transparency, and who benefits from any price reductions are likely to shape further congressional scrutiny of the policy as the midterms approach.