The price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States climbed sharply again after a brief period of relief, with AAA reporting that the increase followed days when drivers had started to see lower pump prices. AAA said the national average rose 31 cents over the past week, reaching $4.48 per gallon on Tuesday. The rebound arrived after prices had fallen daily for nearly two weeks in mid-April amid signs that the Iran conflict could be winding down.
The change at the pump is tied to how the war has affected the flow of crude oil, which is the main input for gasoline. The Strait of Hormuz—a narrow passage through which about a fifth of the world’s crude oil normally passes—has been effectively shut, and oil tankers have been stranded there unable to deliver crude. Energy market analysts said the result has been a global energy crisis that pushes up crude prices, which then feed into gasoline costs.
AAA said gasoline has risen about 50% since the war with Iran began, and the latest weekly jump marked a continuation of the higher level of costs for drivers. The brief drop that followed earlier optimism in mid-April did not last, with prices reversing course as the war continued. Rob Smith, director of global fuel retail at S&P Global Energy, described the earlier optimism as linked to a decline in crude prices and then gasoline spot prices, which retailers used as grounds to lower prices.
Smith said that momentum has not held. He pointed to a “fundamental shortfall” in meeting demand and said the upward pressure on prices continues “every day the Strait of Hormuz is constrained.” He added that the waterway remains “severely constrained,” framing the issue as structural rather than temporary.
Energy analysts also described how different parts of the gasoline price stack into what drivers pay. The Energy Information Administration said that in the United States oil prices represented about 51% of the price of a gallon of gasoline in 2025. The EIA also said federal and state taxes contributed about 17%, refining costs and profits contributed 14%, and distribution and marketing contributed 17%, with taxes and refining costs in some states—such as California—pushing gasoline above the national average.
For the oil-market shock driving gasoline, the International Energy Agency said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets. In that environment, analysts said crude prices surged, and Bob Kleinberg, an adjunct senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said the movements in gasoline and West Texas Intermediate futures have generally matched over the recent weeks. Kleinberg said the “shape of the curves” followed the same pattern, with little delay, even if the relationship was not exactly proportional.
Kleinberg also said the oil market reacts quickly to developments tied to diplomacy and to threats to shipping. After news about attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf or about stalled talks, refineries and traders adjust what they are willing to pay for oil, he said, emphasizing how sensitive the market is to what comes out of Washington. Jim Krane of Rice University’s Baker Institute said one event in April that could have shifted prices came when the United States blocked Iranian ports to stop Iran from exporting oil.
Krane said Iran had been moving an unusually high amount of oil to global markets, which he said was helping moderate prices. He said the U.S. decision to punish Iran by blocking exports increased pressure not only on Iran but also on global oil prices, forcing them higher. He described the episode as a factor in renewed gasoline price pressure, separate from the earlier optimism that had accompanied ceasefire announcements.
Despite the earlier decline in mid-April, analysts said there is no quick fix for returning gasoline prices to pre-war levels. Smith said that even if the conflict were resolved and both sides agreed to keep Hormuz open, returning to the pre-war baseline would take months, in part because the region would still carry an associated risk premium for shipping. He said insurers and shippers would not easily accept a risk level like what it was in February, suggesting costs would remain elevated until that risk perception changes.
Smith said that as long as oil flow remains constrained through the Strait, the higher prices would persist, and he said the duration of disruption affects how fast markets normalize. The renewed weekly increase in May suggested the pump relief drivers saw earlier in April has not yet translated into a sustained trend, as the Strait’s constraints continue to set the pace for crude supply and downstream gasoline costs.