WASHINGTON — White House economists estimate that President Donald Trump’s deals with pharmaceutical companies to lower some U.S. prescription drug prices to the rates those companies charge in other countries could save $529 billion over the next 10 years, according to an analysis obtained by The Associated Press.
The analysis, prepared by administration officials for the White House Council of Economic Advisers, projects the savings as part of a drug-pricing approach Trump has pitched to voters ahead of the November midterm elections for control of the House and Senate. Democratic lawmakers, who have been skeptical of Trump’s claimed savings, said the new numbers are likely to spur additional scrutiny.
The White House projections come as cost-of-living pressures remain a central concern for voters, and as higher energy prices tied to the Iran war have added to public anxiety. Trump has argued that the affordability of prescription medications should improve by cutting deals with drugmakers to reduce the gap between U.S. prices and those charged abroad.
At a Friday rally in Florida, Trump told a crowd of seniors: “Now you have the lowest drug prices anywhere in the world,” adding, “And that alone should win us the midterms.” The AP report said the White House analysis was developed by administration officials for the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
In addition to the broader projected savings, the economists estimated that federal and state governments could save a combined $64.3 billion on Medicaid over the next decade, based on what Trump calls his “most favored nation” policy on drug prices. The analysis also projected that, for some medications, the savings would be higher in a separate model—tallying $733 billion over a decade.
White House officials and Democrats are pressing their competing interpretations of the same underlying policy as Congress considers whether to require more transparency. AP reported that few details of the deals signed by the Trump administration and 17 pharmaceutical companies have been made public, making it difficult for outside analysts to independently verify the projections.
Democratic critics have called for disclosures they say would allow lawmakers to assess the policy’s effect on prices and costs. Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., and 17 Senate Democrats introduced a measure in April that would require the administration to disclose the terms of agreements with pharmaceutical companies.
Wyden said at the time of the announcement, “If these deals are so great, why is the Trump administration afraid of showing them to the public?” The AP report said Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. indicated his team would share details that do not include “proprietary information or trade secrets.”
The AP analysis said the potential savings are premised on the idea that other countries also would pay more for the prescription drugs, which would shift revenue for drugmakers and preserve their ability to invest in new treatments. The report also said the estimate is tied to Americans’ spending of $467 billion on prescription drugs in 2024, based on the most recent government data available.
Democrats have also pointed to an earlier Congressional Budget Office assessment of a plan similar to Trump’s framework. In October 2024, the CBO estimated that such an approach could reduce prescription drug prices by more than 5%, while also warning that the decrease “would probably diminish over time as manufacturers adjusted to the new policy by altering prices or distribution of drugs in other countries.”
As the political debate intensifies, Democrats argue that any price reductions for drugs covered by the “most favored nation” approach could be offset by higher costs for medications not included in the framework. They also have emphasized what they say is increased profitability among drugmakers working with the administration.
In April, staff working for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., released an analysis of 15 companies that agreed to the drug-pricing plan, finding their combined profits increased 66% over the past year to $177 billion. That report said the tax cuts Trump signed into law last year “exempted or delayed many of the most expensive drugs” from Medicare price negotiations.
The Trump administration has disputed Democrats’ critique. AP reported that administration officials say the Sanders analysis is flawed because it relies on the list prices for pharmaceutical drugs rather than the actual price patients pay.