In Dubrovnik, Croatia, the streets of the UNESCO-protected old town are already full of tourists arriving for a season that normally begins to feel inevitable. But as the Iran war raises energy-market uncertainty and fuel prices surge, local officials say the tourism calendar may still shift—raising the prospect of higher airfares or slower arrivals even if bookings remain resilient for now.
Miro Draskovic, director of the Dubrovnik Tourist Board, said the situation for travel is worsening in some source markets even though overall demand has appeared steady. He told The Associated Press that while the American market remains strong, some Australians—typically among the top nations visiting Dubrovnik—are now having trouble reaching Europe. “The situation for sure is very, very difficult, and we are following what’s happening every day,” Draskovic said.
Draskovic’s warning reflects the tourism industry’s reliance on international travelers and the way fuel costs can quickly ripple into aviation pricing. Dubrovnik, described as Croatia’s top Adriatic Sea destination that draws millions of visitors annually, is also described as particularly exposed in part because it sits on the southern tip of Croatia’s coastline. The report said around 80% of visitors come to Dubrovnik by plane.
Still, Dubrovnik airport officials said early indicators remain mixed rather than collapsing. Marina Ruso Mileusnic, a spokeswoman for the city’s airport, said the operator is “very cautious about the upcoming season,” while also pointing to performance around Easter. The report said the airport recorded a 13% rise in visitors over Easter compared with the same period last year, with boats ferrying tourists around the harbor reflecting continued travel activity.
The season’s uncertainty has played out against competing messages from international energy watchers and European officials. In early April, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned in an AP interview that Europe had only weeks of jet fuel supplies and could face what he described as the biggest energy crisis ever. This week, however, European Union transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said there is “no actual evidence” of shortages in the 27-nation bloc and urged people to plan holidays without fear.
For some travelers, the disruption has translated into changes in airline choices rather than an outright cancellation. Singapore businessman Ramon Padiernos, traveling to Dubrovnik, said the Middle East crisis forced him to switch from Emirates and Qatar Airways to Turkish Airlines, but he still made it to the city. “We feel the impact maybe of oil prices but I think everybody just goes on with their lives and enjoy their holidays,” Padiernos said. “I think it is best for the world to see the lighter side of it, rather than focusing on the issues that we cannot control.”
Beyond aviation costs, the energy shock has also fed into wider consumer pressure in Croatia. The report said the energy crisis has contributed to inflation in Croatia rising to 5.8% in April, one of the highest rates in the EU. With nearly 22 million tourist arrivals recorded in Croatia last year, Dubrovnik’s role remains substantial, with the report citing that Dubrovnik logged 4.28 million overnight stays out of about 110 million nationwide in 2025.
As officials monitor demand day by day, Draskovic said the immediate priority is managing the season as conditions evolve. He said hopes remain that travel patterns will normalize, but that until then the sector will “work on day to day basis to get the best possible season we can.”