Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have repeatedly targeted oil refineries and export terminals deep inside Russian territory, setting off large fires that prompted local evacuations and left toxic pollutants along the Black Sea coastline. The strikes are intended to disrupt Moscow’s energy exports, a primary funding source for its military campaign in Ukraine.
The economic effect of the campaign remains uncertain because global oil prices have surged in connection with the Iran war, temporarily boosting Russia’s revenue despite the physical damage to its infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Friday that attacks on the Russian oil sector have cost the country at least $7 billion since the start of the year. He previously noted that intelligence reports indicate export declines at major ports, including Ust-Luga and Primorsk.
The International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude and oil product exports increased by 320,000 barrels per day in March, reaching 7.1 million barrels per day. Higher prices caused monthly oil export revenues to nearly double from $9.7 billion to $19 billion. Chris Weafer, chief executive officer of Macro-Advisory Ltd., said U.S. policy toward Iran prevented a crisis that was developing in the Russian oil sector in late February.
Drone strikes have hit multiple facilities far from the Ukrainian border. In the Black Sea town of Tuapse, roughly 450 kilometers (280 miles) from the front lines, Ukrainian unmanned systems struck an oil refinery and export terminal four times in just over two weeks. Local Governor Veniamin Kondratyev shared video after an April 18 strike showing an emergency official saying boiling oil products had spilled onto the street and damaged cars.
A pumping station in Russia’s Perm region, more than 1,500 kilometers (900 miles) from Ukraine, was targeted on consecutive days. Governor Dmitry Makhonin said drones struck industrial facilities in the region. In late March, the Ust-Luga export terminal on the Baltic Sea was hit three times within a week. The facility sits more than 800 kilometers (500 miles) from Ukraine. Regional Governor Alexander Drozdenko later declared the area around St. Petersburg a “front-line region” because of aerial threats.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said its forces have more than doubled the range of their deep-strike capabilities since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The extended range allows attacks from multiple directions, which complicates defensive operations. Marcel Plichta, a Ph.D. candidate in the School of International Relations at the University of St Andrews, said drone attacks have leveraged simple and domestically assembled technology to strike locations Russia did not expect would be targeted at the start of the war.
“This capability just didn’t exist” four years ago, Plichta said.
Despite the visual scale of the damage, the operational disruption to Russia’s energy flow may be limited. Weafer said that striking a storage tank, particularly one that is not full, causes vapors to ignite and produces large flames that “look very spectacular,” but typically delays deliveries by only a couple of days. He said pump stations, compressors and loading infrastructure are more damaging targets and appear to be well protected, while the tanks are not.
The strikes have produced significant environmental concerns along the Russian coast. President Vladimir Putin warned of “serious environmental consequences” while maintaining that authorities have the situation under control. Officials warned residents to limit time outdoors after monitoring equipment recorded high levels of benzene, a carcinogen present in oil products, during the fires.
Residents in the affected areas reported oily “black rain” falling on their skin and clothing. Local media posted photographs of stray animals with gray-stained coats, and reports indicate that oil spills along the shoreline have coated birds and fish and prompted the beaching of dolphins. Vladimir Slivyak, co-chairman of the environmental group Ecodefense, said the region faces long-term ecological risks.
“There is a lot of oil in the sea,” Slivyak said. “In the next few years, every storm will be bringing more oil pollution onto the coast.”
Authorities maintain a strict suppression of dissent, which has prevented a measurable public backlash against the strikes. Slivyak said public perception of official statements may be shifting as damage spreads closer to populated areas.
“I think a lot of people understand that there is a very big difference between what Putin says and what regional authorities are saying, and what’s really going on,” Slivyak said.