A housing-needs gap analysis commissioned by AARP Hawaiʻi found the state will need 59,900 additional units by 2050, a shortfall driven overwhelmingly by a population that is aging faster than the housing stock can accommodate. The report, conducted by Portland, Oregon-based consulting firm Econorthwest and built on 2024 Census data, ties the projection directly to workforce stability, community health, and the ability of younger generations to remain in the islands.
“It’s not just about kūpuna needing affordable housing,” said Keali‘i Lopez, state director of AARP Hawai‘i, in a statement. “When a lack of affordable housing forces young working families to leave Hawaiʻi, the impacts are felt across generations. The question becomes not only where our children and grandchildren will live, but who will care for our aging parents and grandparents if families can no longer afford to stay.”
Residents 65 and older will account for 44,000 of the needed units. For those 85 and older, the demand will surge to 40 percent of all new housing by 2050, up from the 29 percent share projected for the 65-to-84 age bracket by 2035. The analysis notes that the proportion of the state’s population aged 65 or older rose from 16 percent in 2016 to more than 21 percent in 2024, and a University of Hawai‘i Mānoa Economic Research Organization study projected a quarter of all residents will be 65 or older by 2035.
Meeting the senior demand alone will require roughly one-third of future units to be affordable for households earning less than $63,900 annually, or 60 percent of the area median income, according to the report.
Between 2014 and 2024, Hawai‘i added 43,000 housing units, an 8 percent increase, but the number of households grew faster, by 9.5 percent, leaving the deficit intact. The need is sharpest in the near term: about two-thirds of the 60,000 units must be available by 2035. Honolulu County faces the largest absolute burden — 48,299 units by 2050 — while Kaua‘i carries the greatest load relative to its existing stock; the island needs 5,390 new units, an 18 percent increase over current supply.
The outmigration of younger residents is already reshaping the workforce. Citing 2023 Census figures, the report said nearly half of those born in Hawaiʻi who were then between 20 and 30 lived in another state, giving the islands the third-worst retention rate for that age bracket, behind Alaska and Wyoming.
Lena Staton, a Central Maui resident, watched her son leave the island at 20 for Kentucky, where he could buy land and build a home — a prospect out of reach in Hawai‘i. “They built a house recently and they’re on 4 acres,” she said. “You know, in Kentucky, that’s nothing. But for an island boy coming from Hawai‘i, it’s like a dream.” He is unlikely to move back, she added.
The exodus raises practical concerns about the state’s capacity to maintain healthcare and other services. The report warns that without enough affordable housing to retain working-age and younger cohorts, neighbor island residents will increasingly have to travel to O‘ahu for specialized medical treatment, a trend that “will continue without sufficient affordable housing for the working-age and younger-age cohorts, and without a workforce to support an aging population.”