Hawai‘i’s future housing demand is rising as the state’s population ages, and a new analysis released by AARP Hawaiʻi projects the state will need nearly 60,000 additional housing units by 2050. The report frames the housing gap as a strategy for meeting long-term workforce needs and community health as demographics shift, and it argues that the shortage is also affecting younger working households. It projects that residents age 65 and older will account for the largest share of the additional housing need.
Keali‘i Lopez, the state director of AARP Hawaiʻi, said in a statement that the challenge extends beyond affordability for older adults. Lopez said in the statement, “It’s not just about kūpuna needing affordable housing. When a lack of affordable housing forces young working families to leave Hawaiʻi, the impacts are felt across generations,” adding that the “question becomes not only where our children and grandchildren will live, but who will care for our aging parents and grandparents if families can no longer afford to stay.” The report’s analysis uses 2024 U.S. Census data and estimates future housing needs by income category and age bracket.
For the aging population, the report estimated that meeting the needs of people 65 and older will require prioritizing homes that support “aging in place” and smaller households. It also points to growth in Hawai‘i’s older population: the proportion of residents age 65 and older increased from 16% in 2016 to over 21% in 2024. The analysis further cited a University of Hawaiʻi Mānoa Economic Research Organization projection that a quarter of the state’s residents will be 65 or older by 2035.
The report’s regional outlook shows concentrated demand on Oʻahu and comparatively faster growth needs on neighbor islands. It said that by 2035, 29% of new housing statewide will be needed for kūpuna aged 65 to 84, and that by 2050, those 85 and older will need 40% of the new housing. It also estimated that about two-thirds of the additional 60,000 housing units needed statewide will be required by 2035, indicating that the shortage is most pressing in the near term.
In its estimates by county, the analysis said the greatest total number of units needed by 2050 would be in Honolulu, at 48,299 units. It said Kauaʻi has the greatest need relative to its existing housing stock, with the county requiring 5,390 new housing units by 2050—an 18% increase over its current supply. The report also projected affordability needs for older residents, saying that to meet the housing needs of people 65 and older, just under a third of new units would need to be affordable for those earning less than $63,900, or 60% of area median income.
The report also linked housing costs and availability to out-migration of younger residents, citing evidence from U.S. Census data from 2023. It said residents aged 20 to 30 are moving to the continent and noted that Hawaiʻi has the country’s third worst retention rate for that age group, behind Alaska and Wyoming. It said nearly half of those born in Hawaiʻi who were between 20 and 30 in that census data were living in other states.
A Central Maui resident, Lena Staton, described seeing her son leave Hawai‘i at age 20, moving to Kentucky where, she said, he could afford land and build a home. Staton said, “They built a house recently and they’re on 4 acres,” adding that “in Kentucky, that’s nothing. But for an island boy coming from Hawai‘i, it’s like a dream.” She said her son is unlikely to move back, and the report argues that residents leaving Hawai‘i when they are young reduces the number of people available to fill jobs that care for and serve older adults.
The analysis warned that younger residents leaving can affect services in multiple sectors, saying, as the report put it, “This age group is a vital part of the workforce, and concerns arise about maintaining services and other sectors amid this decline.” It added that as neighbor island residents increasingly have to travel to Oʻahu for specialized medical treatment, those patterns “will continue without sufficient affordable housing for the working-age and younger-age cohorts, and without a workforce to support an aging population.” The report’s authors framed housing demand as connected to whether Hawai‘i can maintain essential services as the state’s population gets older.