Germany weighs Trump troop-reduction threat as NATO allies brace
U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States was reviewing possible troop reductions in Germany, renewing a long-running uncertainty for NATO allies that have grown used to abrupt public signals from Washington. The comments came after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, speaking this week, said the U.S. was being “humiliated” by Tehran in negotiations to end the Iran war.
Trump made the threat in a Wednesday social media post and later returned to the topic on Thursday, when he told Merz the German leader should “spend more time on ending the war with Russia/Ukraine” and “fixing his broken Country” instead of focusing on Iran. The posts reinforced that Trump has repeatedly mused about reducing the U.S. military footprint in Germany and has criticized NATO for not assisting Washington in the Iran war, which began on Feb. 28 with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Europeans have heard similar warnings before. NATO allies have been bracing since shortly after Trump took office for the possibility that U.S. forces could be scaled back, following U.S. warnings that Europe would need to look after its own security and that of Ukraine in the future. In the meantime, U.S. personnel in Europe are typically estimated at around 80,000 to 100,000, with Germany hosting multiple U.S. facilities including Ramstein Air Base and a medical center in Landstuhl where casualties from wars in places such as Afghanistan and Iraq were treated.
Several U.S. defense functions in Germany are also difficult to relocate quickly. The country hosts the headquarters of U.S. European and Africa commands, and U.S. nuclear missiles are stationed there. Ed Arnold, an expert in European security at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said the U.S. gets substantial value from its presence in Germany, including logistics and support for Middle East combat operations, and that he was unlikely to see a withdrawal.
Another analyst, Nico Lange of the Center of European Policy Analysis, pointed to about 36,000 U.S. soldiers in Germany who primarily serve U.S. interests, including “the projection of American power globally,” rather than defending Germany. Lange said the U.S. has invested “substantial funds” in high-quality infrastructure in Germany that cannot be moved overnight, and that changing the deployment would likely require major spending elsewhere. Lange said such a move would also require approval from the U.S. Congress, given the scale of the change.
Arnold said Trump’s social media threat was also likely “bluster,” citing the difference between military and political perspectives. “There is a difference between the military view and the political view,” he said, adding that the threats did not appear as “galling” as they were a couple of years earlier.
Merz, visiting troops on Thursday in Munster in northern Germany, did not directly address Trump’s comments. He instead spoke about “shoulder to shoulder for mutual benefit and in deep trans-Atlantic solidarity” and said Germany’s government has “made great efforts to strengthen Germany’s security.”
Arnold said Europe’s concerns have increasingly focused on potential U.S. redeployments of air-defense systems and related ammunition from Germany to the Middle East, as well as delays in weapons orders to NATO countries such as Estonia and Belgium when the U.S. prioritizes its own needs. At the same time, a senior Western official who spoke on condition of anonymity said they were not aware of any discussions between the U.S. and Germany or other allies regarding possible troop reductions in Germany, and said Europe and Germany were taking more responsibility for security on the continent.
The possibility of a changed U.S. posture has been in the background for some time. The U.S. administration told allies early last year that it was reviewing its military “posture” in Europe and elsewhere, with findings expected to be made public in late 2025 but not yet released. The U.S. committed to inform allies in advance of any changes to ensure no security gap is created, while NATO leaders and European officials have held a series of meetings since the Iran war began more than two months ago.
Over the last year, European allies and Canada have also been preparing for the expectation that they will shoulder more of Europe’s conventional defenses. Analysts said the main U.S. contributions to NATO deterrence going forward will include American nuclear weapons and some troops, even as the allies weigh how any U.S. redeployment could reverberate across security commitments.
Beyond the uncertainty over troop levels, allies have also had to manage Trump’s broader diplomatic provocations. The real damage to NATO unity, one assessment in the report said, was tied to Trump’s fixation on Greenland and his intent to annex the island, a semiautonomous part of Denmark, including his interest in sending family members and administration officials there.