China’s factory activity grew in April for a second straight month, according to an official survey released as global energy prices were elevated amid the Iran war. The National Bureau of Statistics said the manufacturing purchasing managers index slipped slightly to 50.3 from 50.4 in March, keeping the measure above 50 that indicates expansion.
The report also showed mixed movement inside the survey. The bureau said its new orders sub-index moved down to 50.6 in April from 51.6 in March, while the production sub-index edged up to 51.5.
Capital Economics senior China economist Leah Fahy said in a research note that higher energy prices so far had not weighed on industrial activity in China. Fahy said the acceleration in industrial activity appeared to be linked to strong export demand, and added that surging oil prices were boosting global demand for green technology—an area in which Chinese companies dominate manufacturing of clean energy equipment.
Fahy also tied expectations for China’s export outlook to U.S. trade policy changes. The report said U.S. tariffs on China have been lowered after a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year against President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which Fahy said could make China’s exports to the U.S. pick up in coming months.
Beyond tariffs, the survey coverage pointed to additional trade diplomacy context. It said a long planned visit by Trump to Beijing to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month could help extend a year-long trade truce reached between the two leaders late last year.
Separately, a private sector survey covering factory activity pointed to faster expansion. S&P Global and RatingDog said their factory activity PMI rose to 52.2 in April from 50.8 in March, a measure they described as more focused on smaller, export-focused private firms.
The official and private readings arrive amid a broader picture of China’s slowing domestic demand and uneven growth. The report said China’s economy expanded at about a 5% annual pace in January-March, accelerating from the previous quarter and beating economists’ estimates, and that Chinese leaders have set a 4.5% to 5% growth target for 2026. It also said a prolonged property sector slump has weighed on domestic investment and consumption, even as exports have stayed robust—reflected in the report’s mention of China recording an all-time high $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year.
The bottom line from the April PMI releases was that industrial activity remained resilient enough to keep expanding, even as the Iran war pushed up global energy costs and fed expectations around how exports—and tariff policies—could evolve.